Wijk Marie, Wasmann Roeland E, Jacobson Karen R, Svensson Elin M, Denti Paolo
Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Centre, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol. 2025 Jun;14(6):1042-1049. doi: 10.1002/psp4.70015. Epub 2025 Mar 11.
Proper handling of data below the lower limit of quantification (BLQ) is crucial for accurate pharmacokinetic parameter estimation. The M3 method proposed by Beal uses a likelihood-based approach that is precise but has been reported to suffer from numerical issues in converging. Common alternatives include ignoring the BLQs (M1), imputing half of the lower limit of quantification and ignoring trailing BLQs (M6) or imputing zero (M7). The imputation methods fail to account for the additional uncertainty affecting imputed observations. We used NONMEM with FOCE-I/Laplace to compare the stability, bias, and precision of methods M1, M3, M6, M7, and modified versions M6+ and M7+ that inflate the additive residual error for BLQs. Real and simulated datasets with a two-compartment model were used to assess stability through parallel retries with perturbed initial estimates. The resulting differences in objective function values (OFV) were compared. Bias and precision were evaluated on simulated data using stochastic simulations and estimations. M3 yielded different OFV across retries (±14.7), though the parameter estimates were similar. All other methods, except M7 (±130), were stable. M3 demonstrated the best bias and precision (average rRMSE 18.7%), but M6+ and M7+ performed comparably (26.0% and 23.3%, respectively). The unstable OFV produced by M3 represents a challenge when used to guide model development. Imputation methods showed superior stability, and including inflated additive error improved bias and precision to levels comparable with M3. For these reasons, M7+ (of simpler implementation than M6+) is an attractive alternative to M3, especially during model development.
正确处理低于定量下限(BLQ)的数据对于准确估计药代动力学参数至关重要。Beal提出的M3方法使用基于似然的方法,该方法精确,但据报道在收敛时存在数值问题。常见的替代方法包括忽略BLQ(M1)、将定量下限的一半进行插补并忽略后续的BLQ(M6)或插补为零(M7)。插补方法未能考虑影响插补观测值的额外不确定性。我们使用带有FOCE-I/拉普拉斯的NONMEM来比较方法M1、M3、M6、M7以及修改版本M6+和M7+的稳定性、偏差和精度,其中M6+和M7+会增大BLQ的加性残差误差。使用具有双室模型的真实和模拟数据集,通过对初始估计值进行扰动的并行重试来评估稳定性。比较由此产生的目标函数值(OFV)差异。使用随机模拟和估计对模拟数据评估偏差和精度。M3在各次重试中产生不同的OFV(±14.7),尽管参数估计相似。除M7(±130)外,所有其他方法都是稳定的。M3表现出最佳的偏差和精度(平均相对均方根误差为18.7%),但M6+和M7+的表现相当(分别为26.0%和23.3%)。M3产生的不稳定OFV在用于指导模型开发时是一个挑战。插补方法表现出更好的稳定性,并且包括增大的加性误差可将偏差和精度提高到与M3相当的水平。由于这些原因,M7+(比M6+实现更简单)是M3的一个有吸引力的替代方法,尤其是在模型开发期间。