Buszkiewicz James H, Henderson Andrea K, Xie Yanmei, Patrick Megan E, Fleischer Nancy L
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Department of Sociology, College of Arts and Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, USA.
Socius. 2024 Jan-Dec;10. doi: 10.1177/23780231241275394. Epub 2024 Sep 26.
Previous work has documented the rise of educational expectations amongst US adolescents and the change in its ability to predict future educational attainment. However, studies have yet to examine these longitudinal changes across generational birth cohorts defined by ever-shifting social norms, cultural contexts, and social policies. Using Monitoring the Future study panel data, we conducted cohort-stratified modified Poisson regression models to estimate the probability of bachelor's degree completion by educational expectations overall and by gender, race and ethnicity, and parental educational attainment. We found that despite high educational expectations, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and first-generation students had a low likelihood of bachelor's degree completion. These relationships persisted across generational cohorts. These findings suggest that social and economic resources remain salient factors that structure educational opportunities for students from minoritized racial and ethnic backgrounds and first-generation students.
以往的研究记录了美国青少年教育期望的上升及其预测未来教育成就能力的变化。然而，尚未有研究考察这些纵向变化在由不断变化的社会规范、文化背景和社会政策所定义的代际出生队列中的情况。利用“监测未来”研究小组的数据，我们进行了队列分层修正泊松回归模型，以估计总体教育期望以及按性别、种族和族裔、父母教育程度划分的获得学士学位的概率。我们发现，尽管教育期望很高，但非西班牙裔黑人、西班牙裔和第一代学生获得学士学位的可能性较低。这些关系在各代队列中都持续存在。这些发现表明，社会和经济资源仍然是影响来自少数族裔和第一代学生教育机会的重要因素。
