Kedang Virgilius Martin Kelake, Permatasari Indri, Chanchaidechachai Thanicha, Inchaisri Chaidate
International Graduate Program of Veterinary Science and Technology, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Research Unit of Data Innovation for Livestock, Department of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.
BMC Vet Res. 2025 Mar 18;21(1):180. doi: 10.1186/s12917-025-04621-2.
Indonesia faced new outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in 2022 after being officially free from the disease for several decades. The outbreaks were first reported in East Java in April 2022 and subsequently spread to many regions in Indonesia. This study investigated the epidemiology and risk factors of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in Java, Indonesia, from 2022 to 2023. Descriptive, spatial, spatiotemporal, and risk factor analyses were conducted to investigate the patterns and risk factors associated with the outbreaks in Java.
Results showed that the outbreaks were distributed across the island. East Java was the most affected region. The outbreaks peaked in June 2022, followed by a downward trend until 2023. Positive spatial autocorrelations were found in both years, indicating that the outbreaks clustered in several areas. The spatiotemporal analysis found a total of 16 clusters in both years, with 11 clusters in 2022 and 5 clusters in 2023. The temporal distribution of clusters indicated a peak period from May to July, with 12 out of 16 clusters occurring during this time. Risk factor analysis found that environmental and agricultural-related factors, including annual precipitation, the presence of livestock markets, the presence of slaughterhouses, the presence of animal health centres, cattle population, and goat population, are significant risk factors for the occurrence of outbreaks in Java. Probability risk mapping found higher risk areas primarily distributed in the eastern and central parts of Java.
The outbreaks predominantly clustered in eastern and central parts of Java. The outbreaks peaked in June 2022, followed by a downward trend until the end of 2023. Environmental and agricultural-related factors significantly increased the risk of outbreak occurrence.
印度尼西亚在宣布数十年无口蹄疫后，于2022年面临口蹄疫新疫情。疫情于2022年4月首次在东爪哇被报告，随后蔓延至印度尼西亚的许多地区。本研究调查了2022年至2023年印度尼西亚爪哇口蹄疫疫情的流行病学和风险因素。进行了描述性、空间、时空和风险因素分析，以调查与爪哇疫情相关的模式和风险因素。
结果显示疫情分布在全岛。东爪哇是受影响最严重的地区。疫情在2022年6月达到峰值，随后呈下降趋势直至2023年。两年均发现正空间自相关，表明疫情在几个地区聚集。时空分析在两年中共发现16个聚集区，2022年有11个，2023年有5个。聚集区的时间分布表明高峰期为5月至7月，16个聚集中有12个在此期间出现。风险因素分析发现，与环境和农业相关的因素，包括年降水量、牲畜市场的存在、屠宰场的存在、动物健康中心的存在、牛的数量和山羊的数量，是爪哇疫情发生的重要风险因素。概率风险图显示高风险区域主要分布在爪哇的东部和中部。
疫情主要聚集在爪哇的东部和中部。疫情在2022年6月达到峰值，随后呈下降趋势直至2023年底。与环境和农业相关的因素显著增加了疫情发生的风险。
