Tian Chuwei, Shi Liu, Wang Jinyu, Zhou Jun, Rui Chen, Yin Yueheng, Du Wei, Chang Shimin, Rui Yunfeng
Department of Orthopaedics, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China; Orthopaedic Trauma Institute (OTI), School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China; School of Medicine, Southeast University, NO. 87 Ding Jia Qiao, Nanjing, China.
Department of Rehabilitation, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
Arch Gerontol Geriatr. 2025 Jun;133:105832. doi: 10.1016/j.archger.2025.105832. Epub 2025 Mar 15.
We aimed to analyse the global, regional, and national burdens of hip fractures in older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050, on the basis of data from the GBD 2021 study.
We employed a joinpoint model to analyse trends in the burden of hip fractures from 1990‒2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify temporal trends over this period. We evaluated the relationship between the social development index and the burden of hip fracture in elderly people and conducted a health inequality analysis. Additionally, we applied Long-short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast burden trends of hip fractures up to 2050.
The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for hip fractures in older adults rose from 781.56 per 100,000 in 1990 to 948.81 in 2021. The 2021 age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was 1,894.07, and the age-standardized YLD rate (ASDR) was 173.52. From 1990 to 2021, the incidence and prevalence increased by 168.71 % and 173.07 %, respectively, while the burden of DALYs decreased. Future trends were projected via the LSTM. The burden and risk factors for hip fractures varied significantly by sex, country, and region. Population and aging are primary contributors to the rising incidence of elderly hip fractures, with falls being the leading direct cause.
From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of hip fractures in the elderly population, especially among older women, steadily increased. Population ageing highlights the urgent need for targeted public health interventions and resource allocation, including early diagnosis, effective prevention strategies, and region-specific management approaches.
基于全球疾病负担研究（GBD）2021的数据，我们旨在分析1990年至2021年以及预测到2050年老年人髋部骨折的全球、区域和国家负担。
我们采用连接点模型分析1990 - 2021年髋部骨折负担的趋势。使用估计年百分比变化（EAPC）来量化这一时期的时间趋势。我们评估了社会发展指数与老年人髋部骨折负担之间的关系，并进行了健康不平等分析。此外，我们应用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络预测到2050年髋部骨折的负担趋势。
老年人髋部骨折的全球年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从1990年的每10万人781.56例上升至2021年的948.81例。2021年的年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）为1,894.07，年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）为173.52。1990年至2021年，发病率和患病率分别增加了168.71%和173.07%，而伤残调整生命年负担有所下降。通过LSTM预测了未来趋势。髋部骨折的负担和危险因素因性别、国家和地区而异。人口和老龄化是老年髋部骨折发病率上升的主要因素，跌倒为主要直接原因。
1990年至2021年，老年人群尤其是老年女性的全球髋部骨折负担稳步增加。人口老龄化凸显了针对性公共卫生干预和资源分配的迫切需求，包括早期诊断、有效的预防策略以及针对特定区域的管理方法。
