Jia Shun, Meng Wei, Li Shuyu
College of Energy and Mining Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, People's Republic of China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 24;15(1):10142. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-94848-8.
Renewable energy batteries play a crucial role in the stable storage of clean energy. However, the supply risks associated with critical mineral raw materials closely related to renewable energy batteries - namely lithium, manganese, cobalt, and nickel - significantly threaten the safety and stability of these batteries. Therefore, this study selects representative factors from four aspects: resources, market, international relations, and technology, and employs the SMAA-TRI method to assess the supply risks of critical minerals required for renewable energy storage batteries. The results indicate that: (1) From 2006 to 2022, the supply risk of lithium resources for renewable energy batteries in China evolved from medium-high to high, while the risks for manganese, nickel, and cobalt resources remain within the high-risk range; (2) Predictions from the BP neural network model suggest that lithium, manganese, nickel, and cobalt would continue to be in the high-risk range over the next three years; (3) Sensitivity analysis reveals that environmental safety, resource recovery rates, substitution rates, external dependencies, and production concentration would become significant factors constraining the supply risks of renewable energy storage batteries.
可再生能源电池在清洁能源的稳定存储中发挥着关键作用。然而，与可再生能源电池密切相关的关键矿物原材料（即锂、锰、钴和镍）的供应风险，对这些电池的安全与稳定性构成了重大威胁。因此，本研究从资源、市场、国际关系和技术四个方面选取代表性因素，运用SMAA-TRI方法评估可再生能源存储电池所需关键矿物的供应风险。结果表明：（1）2006年至2022年，中国可再生能源电池锂资源的供应风险从中高演变为高风险，而锰、镍和钴资源的风险仍处于高风险范围内；（2）BP神经网络模型预测显示，未来三年锂、锰、镍和钴仍将处于高风险范围；（3）敏感性分析表明，环境安全、资源回收率、替代率、外部依存度和生产集中度将成为制约可再生能源存储电池供应风险的重要因素。
