Lin Liyu, Xu Jiongbo, Chai Yuanru, Wu Wei
The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China.
Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Mar 24;25(1):1115. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22100-z.
To comprehensively evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of infective endocarditis (IE) from 2010 to 2021, and to project future trends.
This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Statistical methods, including joinpoint regression and the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, were employed to analyze the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of IE, stratified by gender, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI).
From 2010 to 2021, the global prevalence of IE increased by 40.1%, with a total of 421,667 cases reported in 2021. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) rose from 4.7 per 100,000 to 5.3 per 100,000. Although the number of deaths increased by 23.01% and DALYs rose by 13.26%, both the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and the age-standardized DALYs rate exhibited slight declines. Significant regional disparities in ASPR were observed, with an overall increase correlated with higher SDI levels. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in ASPR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs rate during this period was 0.8 (0.6, 1.0), -1.1 (-1.7, -0.5), and -1.3 (-1.9, -0.7), respectively. Notably, predictions from the ARIMA model indicate that the ASPR for men is expected to continue rising over the next five years, while a decline is anticipated for women; however, both genders are projected to experience a decrease in ASDR.
Over the past decade, the ASPR of IE has been on a gradual increase, while the ASDR and the age-standardized DALY rate have slightly decreased. It is indicated that some progress has been achieved in the global disease management and treatment effectiveness of IE. Based on the increasing prevalence rate and the relatively high mortality rate, the burden of IE globally will still remain a major public health challenge in the future.
全面评估2010年至2021年全球、区域和国家感染性心内膜炎（IE）的负担，并预测未来趋势。
本研究利用了《2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究》的数据。采用了包括连接点回归和自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型在内的统计方法，分析IE的患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY），并按性别、年龄和社会人口指数（SDI）进行分层。
2010年至2021年，全球IE患病率上升了40.1%，2021年共报告421,667例病例。年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）从每10万人4.7例升至每10万人5.3例。尽管死亡人数增加了23.01%，DALY增加了13.26%，但年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）和年龄标准化DALY率均略有下降。观察到ASPR存在显著的区域差异，总体上升与较高的SDI水平相关。连接点回归分析显示，在此期间，ASPR、ASDR和年龄标准化DALY率的平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）分别为0.8（0.6，1.0）、-1.1（-1.7，-0.5）和-1.3（-1.9，-0.7）。值得注意的是，ARIMA模型预测表明，男性的ASPR预计在未来五年将继续上升，而女性预计会下降；然而，预计两性的ASDR都会下降。
在过去十年中，IE的ASPR呈逐渐上升趋势，而ASDR和年龄标准化DALY率略有下降。这表明在全球IE疾病管理和治疗效果方面已取得一些进展。基于患病率的上升和相对较高的死亡率，全球IE负担在未来仍将是一项重大的公共卫生挑战。
