Zhou Jingxuan, Yu Hai, Xia Xichun, Chen Yanan, Ming Wai-Kit, Jiang Yuzhen, Lak Yau Sun, Ip Chongchong, Huang Chaodi, Zhao Qiqi, Zheng Suzheng, Xia Liming, Zheng Xinkai, Wu Shi, Lyu Jun, Deng Liehua
Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University & Jinan University Institute of Dermatology, Guangzhou, China.
Institute of Biomedical Transformation, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Open Med (Wars). 2025 Mar 21;20(1):20241103. doi: 10.1515/med-2024-1103. eCollection 2025.
To explore the postoperative risk factors of Merkel cell carcinoma patients who have undergone surgical resection, and to construct a survival prognosis column chart.
Patients diagnosed with Merkel cell carcinoma and underwent surgical resection from 2000 to 2019 were selected from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database. COX regression analysis was used to screen for independent prognostic factors, and a column chart was constructed. The predictive performance of the column chart was evaluated using consistency index, receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curve.
The results of multi-factor COX regression showed that T stage and N stage were independent prognostic factors affecting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients after Merkel cell carcinoma resection. Construct a column chart based on the above two factors. The C-index of the column chart in the modeling group is 0.732 [95% CI (0.649, 0.814)], and the area under the curve (AUC) for the first and second years are 0.816 [95% CI (0.728, 0.904)] and 0.693 [95% CI (0.593, 0.792)], respectively. The C-index in the validation group was 0.724 [95% CI (0.569, 0.879)], and the AUC in the first and second years were 0.739 [95% CI (0.644, 0.833)] and 0.658 [95% CI (0.556, 0.759)], respectively.
The predictive model constructed based on two factors, T stage and N stage, has good prognostic diagnostic accuracy and is helpful for clinical decision-making and personalized treatment.
探讨接受手术切除的默克尔细胞癌患者的术后危险因素，并构建生存预后柱状图。
从监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库中选取2000年至2019年被诊断为默克尔细胞癌并接受手术切除的患者。采用COX回归分析筛选独立预后因素，并构建柱状图。使用一致性指数、受试者工作特征曲线和校准曲线评估柱状图的预测性能。
多因素COX回归结果显示，T分期和N分期是影响默克尔细胞癌切除术后患者癌症特异性生存（CSS）的独立预后因素。基于上述两个因素构建柱状图。建模组柱状图的C指数为0.732 [95%可信区间（0.649, 0.814）]，第一年和第二年的曲线下面积（AUC）分别为0.816 [95%可信区间（0.728, 0.904）]和0.693 [95%可信区间（0.593, 0.792）]。验证组的C指数为0.724 [95%可信区间（0.569, 0.879）]，第一年和第二年的AUC分别为0.739 [95%可信区间（0.644, 0.833）]和0.658 [95%可信区间（0.556, 0.759）]。
基于T分期和N分期两个因素构建的预测模型具有良好的预后诊断准确性，有助于临床决策和个体化治疗。
