He Fei, Ning Jinkui, Qiu Xinyi, Yu Shebao, Zhang Lvshui, Huang Cheng
Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Forest Ecosystem Protection and Restoration of Poyang Lake Watershed, College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, 330045, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 25;15(1):10301. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-93859-9.
The Chinese government has set ambitious carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals for 2030 and 2060. To achieve these targets, China will need to adopt stricter carbon emission policies in the future. Due to China's vast territory, there are significant disparities in economic development levels and carbon dioxide emissions (CEs) among its provinces. Therefore, equitable carbon reduction policies are crucial for regional economic development. This study calculates CEs from energy consumption in 30 Chinese provinces using energy balance tables and CEs factors. Based on this, the Dagum decomposition Gini index is used to quantitatively assess CEs inequality between the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in China's central, eastern, and western regions. The results show that over the past 25 years, China's CEs have increased from 3.17 billion tons to 13.32 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 6.17%. Additionally, CEs inequality in China has decreased by 3.96%. Moreover, CEs inequality in the eastern provinces has decreased the most (57.65%), followed by the central and western regions. Furthermore, CEs inequality in the secondary industry has expanded in all three regions, while inequality in the tertiary industry remained smaller due to technological and geographical constraints.
中国政府已为2030年和2060年设定了雄心勃勃的碳达峰和碳中和目标。为实现这些目标，中国未来将需要采取更严格的碳排放政策。由于中国幅员辽阔，其各省之间的经济发展水平和二氧化碳排放量存在显著差异。因此，公平的碳减排政策对区域经济发展至关重要。本研究利用能源平衡表和碳排放因子计算了中国30个省份的能源消费碳排放。在此基础上，运用达古姆分解基尼系数对中国中部、东部和西部地区第一、二、三产业间的碳排放不平等进行了定量评估。结果表明，在过去25年里，中国的碳排放从31.7亿吨增加到133.2亿吨，年均增长率为6.17%。此外，中国的碳排放不平等下降了3.96%。而且，东部省份的碳排放不平等下降幅度最大（57.65%），其次是中部和西部地区。此外，所有三个地区第二产业的碳排放不平等都有所扩大，而由于技术和地理限制，第三产业的不平等仍然较小。
