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Investigating Google Trends to forecast acute febrile illness outbreaks in North India reported through the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program.

作者信息

Verma Madhur, Kishore Kamal, Parija Pragyan Paramita, Sahoo Soumya Swaroop, Gambhir Dolly, Gupta Usha, Kakkar Rakesh

机构信息

Department of Community & Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences Bathinda, Punjab, 151001, India.

Department of Biostatistics, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, 160012, India.

出版信息

BMC Infect Dis. 2025 Mar 28;25(1):431. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-10801-0.


DOI:10.1186/s12879-025-10801-0
PMID:40155818
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11951705/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Acute Febrile Illness (AFI) like Malaria, Dengue, Chikungunya, and Enteric fever still remain the most common cause of seeking healthcare in low-middle-income countries and need to be constantly monitored for any impending outbreak. Digital epidemiology promises to assist traditional health surveillance. The health data (including AFI) collated by Google using specialised platforms like Google Trends (GT) is known to correlate with actual disease trends. The present study thus aims to assess the potential of GT to support routine surveillance system and forecast AFI outbreaks reported through the Indian Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP). METHODS: We utilised Haryana's IDSP portal to retrieve the weekly data of the most commonly reported infectious diseases causing AFI between 2011 and 2020. Internet search trends were downloaded using GT. Descriptive statistics estimated the burden of the AFI and Bland-Altman's plot depicted statistical agreement between the two. We adopted the Box-Jenkins approach to attain the final SARIMA model and explain the time-dependent weekly incidence of AFI. RESULTS: The time series plot of the reported AFI displayed trends. Martin- Bland plots depicted acceptable agreement between two datasets for all Chikungunya and Dengue. Among the models evaluated, the Malaria model [SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)] demonstrated the best performance with a balanced fit and reasonable accuracy, while the Enteric Fever model [SARIMA(0,1,0)(1,1,1)] exhibited low prediction error but weak seasonal significance. In contrast, the Dengue [SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)] and Chikungunya [ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,0)] models had high forecast errors, limiting their predictive reliability. Overall, GT supplemented the prediction performance of the SARIMA models with adjusted R of 46%, 50%, 50%, and 52% compared to the original 43%, 49%, 20%, and 48%. CONCLUSIONS: Our study observed modest improvements in GT-based SARIMA forecasting models compared to routine IDSP mechanisms for predicting AFI outbreaks in Haryana, highlighting the potential for further enhancement. As more granular GT data becomes available, its integration with traditional surveillance systems could significantly enhance forecasting accuracy for AFI and other infectious disease outbreaks. At no additional cost to the health system, GT can serve as a valuable, real-time digital epidemiology tool, strengthening public health preparedness and enabling timely interventions for the early containment of emerging diseases.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/69c3e4efedc8/12879_2025_10801_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/723830e66cde/12879_2025_10801_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/9a2ea38c84d0/12879_2025_10801_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/dddd8e41edbe/12879_2025_10801_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/7c695a72b6d3/12879_2025_10801_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/69c3e4efedc8/12879_2025_10801_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/723830e66cde/12879_2025_10801_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/9a2ea38c84d0/12879_2025_10801_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/dddd8e41edbe/12879_2025_10801_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/7c695a72b6d3/12879_2025_10801_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5d03/11951705/69c3e4efedc8/12879_2025_10801_Fig5_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Investigating Google Trends to forecast acute febrile illness outbreaks in North India reported through the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program.

BMC Infect Dis. 2025-3-28

[2]
Mapping the stability of febrile illness hotspots in Punjab from 2012 to 2019- a spatial clustering and regression analysis.

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[3]
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[4]
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[5]
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J Trop Pediatr. 2020-10-1

[6]
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[7]
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MMWR Surveill Summ. 2024-5-30

[8]
Mapping the Outbreaks of Dengue and Chikungunya and Their Syndemic in India: A Comprehensive Analysis Over the Past Decade Utilizing the Data From the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP).

Cureus. 2025-1-9

[9]
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Indian J Public Health. 2012

[10]
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J Vector Borne Dis. 2018

本文引用的文献

[1]
Mapping the stability of febrile illness hotspots in Punjab from 2012 to 2019- a spatial clustering and regression analysis.

BMC Public Health. 2023-10-16

[2]
IHIP - A Leap into India's Dream of Digitalizing Healthcare.

Indian J Community Med. 2023

[3]
Rapid range shifts in African mosquitoes over the last century.

Biol Lett. 2023-2

[4]
Modeling COVID-19 incidence with Google Trends.

Front Res Metr Anal. 2022-9-15

[5]
Opportunities and challenges to accurate diagnosis and management of acute febrile illness in adults and adolescents: A review.

Acta Trop. 2022-3

[6]
Field Epidemiology Training Programs to accelerate public health workforce development and global health security.

Int J Infect Dis. 2021-10

[7]
The correlation between Google trends and salmonellosis.

BMC Public Health. 2021-8-21

[8]
Exploring the Utility of Google Mobility Data During the COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Digital Epidemiological Analysis.

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2021-8-30

[9]
Reliability of Google Trends: Analysis of the Limits and Potential of Web Infoveillance During COVID-19 Pandemic and for Future Research.

Front Res Metr Anal. 2021-5-25

[10]
Time series analysis of cumulative incidences of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers in China using both Grey and SARIMA models.

PLoS One. 2020-10-28

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