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印度尼西亚登革热谷歌趋势与国家监测报告之间的相关性。

Correlation between Google Trends on dengue fever and national surveillance report in Indonesia.

作者信息

Husnayain Atina, Fuad Anis, Lazuardi Lutfan

机构信息

a E-Health Division, Center for Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing , Universitas Gadjah Mada , Yogyakarta , Indonesia.

b Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing , Universitas Gadjah Mada , Yogyakarta , Indonesia.

出版信息

Glob Health Action. 2019;12(1):1552652. doi: 10.1080/16549716.2018.1552652.

Abstract

: Digital traces are rapidly used for health monitoring purposes in recent years. This approach is growing as the consequence of increased use of mobile phone, Internet, and machine learning. Many studies reported the use of Google Trends data as a potential data source to assist traditional surveillance systems. The rise of Internet penetration (54.7%) and the huge utilization of Google (98%) indicate the potential use of Google Trends in Indonesia. No study was performed to measure the correlation between country wide official dengue reports and Google Trends data in Indonesia. : This study aims to measure the correlation between Google Trends data on dengue fever and the Indonesian national surveillance report. : This research was a quantitative study using time series data (2012-2016). Two sets of data were analyzed using Moving Average analysis in Microsoft Excel. Pearson and Time lag correlations were also used to measure the correlation between those data. : Moving Average analysis showed that Google Trends data have a linear time series pattern with official dengue report. Pearson correlation indicated high correlation for three defined search terms with R-value range from 0.921 to 0.937 ( ≤ 0.05, overall period) which showed increasing trend in epidemic periods (2015-2016). Time lag correlation also indicated that Google Trends data can potentially be used for an early warning system and novel tool to monitor public reaction before the increase of dengue cases and during the outbreak. : Google Trends data have a linear time series pattern and statistically correlated with annual official dengue reports. Identification of information-seeking behavior is needed to support the use of Google Trends for disease surveillance in Indonesia.

摘要

近年来,数字痕迹迅速被用于健康监测目的。由于手机、互联网和机器学习的使用增加,这种方法正在不断发展。许多研究报告称,谷歌趋势数据可作为一种潜在数据源,辅助传统监测系统。互联网普及率的上升(54.7%)以及谷歌的高使用率(98%)表明谷歌趋势在印度尼西亚具有潜在用途。尚未有研究测量印度尼西亚全国官方登革热报告与谷歌趋势数据之间的相关性。

本研究旨在测量谷歌趋势数据中登革热相关内容与印度尼西亚国家监测报告之间的相关性。

本研究是一项使用时间序列数据(2012 - 2016年)的定量研究。在微软Excel中使用移动平均分析对两组数据进行了分析。还使用了皮尔逊相关性和时间滞后相关性来测量这些数据之间的相关性。

移动平均分析表明,谷歌趋势数据与官方登革热报告具有线性时间序列模式。皮尔逊相关性表明,对于三个定义的搜索词,相关性较高,R值范围为0.921至0.937(≤0.05,整个时间段),在流行期(2015 - 2016年)呈上升趋势。时间滞后相关性还表明,谷歌趋势数据有可能用于预警系统以及在登革热病例增加之前和疫情爆发期间监测公众反应的新工具。

谷歌趋势数据具有线性时间序列模式,并且与年度官方登革热报告在统计上相关。在印度尼西亚,需要识别信息搜索行为,以支持将谷歌趋势用于疾病监测。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a407/6327938/51a2ba1c271e/ZGHA_A_1552652_F0001_OC.jpg

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