Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, P. R. China.
PLoS One. 2020 Oct 28;15(10):e0241217. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241217. eCollection 2020.
Typhoid and paratyphoid fevers are common enteric diseases causing disability and death in China. Incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid between 2004 and 2016 in China were analyzed descriptively to explore the epidemiological features such as age-specific and geographical distribution. Cumulative incidence of both fevers displayed significant decrease nationally, displaying a drop of 73.9% for typhoid and 86.6% for paratyphoid in 2016 compared to 2004. Cumulative incidence fell in all age subgroups and the 0-4 years-old children were the most susceptible ones in recent years. A cluster of three southwestern provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi) were the top high-incidence regions. Grey model GM (1,1) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model were employed to extract the long-term trends of the diseases. Annual cumulative incidence for typhoid and paratyphoid were formulated by GM (1,1) as [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] respectively. SARIMA (0,1,7) × (1,0,1)12 was selected among a collection of constructed models for high R2 and low errors. The predictive models for both fevers forecasted cumulative incidence to continue the slightly downward trend and maintain the cyclical seasonality in near future years. Such data-driven insights are informative and actionable for the prevention and control of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers as serious infectious diseases.
伤寒和副伤寒是常见的肠道疾病，在中国可导致残疾和死亡。对 2004 年至 2016 年中国伤寒和副伤寒的发病率数据进行了描述性分析，以探讨年龄特异性和地理分布等流行病学特征。全国伤寒和副伤寒的累积发病率均呈显著下降趋势，与 2004 年相比，2016 年伤寒发病率下降 73.9%，副伤寒发病率下降 86.6%。所有年龄组的累积发病率均有所下降，近年来 0-4 岁儿童是最易感染的人群。西南三省（云南、贵州和广西）呈聚集性高发病态势。采用灰色模型 GM（1,1）和季节性自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）模型提取疾病的长期趋势。通过 GM（1,1）建立的伤寒和副伤寒的年度累积发病率公式分别为[Formula: see text]和[Formula: see text]。在构建的一系列模型中，选择 SARIMA（0,1,7）×（1,0,1）12 作为最佳模型，该模型具有较高的 R2 和较低的误差。两种发热疾病的预测模型均预测累积发病率将继续呈轻微下降趋势，并在未来几年保持周期性季节性。这些基于数据的见解为预防和控制伤寒和副伤寒等严重传染病提供了信息和可行的建议。
