Skevas Theodoros, Thompson Wyatt, Brown Benjamin, Salin Delmy, Gastelle Jesse, Marcillo-Yepez Edgar
Division of Applied Social Sciences, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, United States of America.
Transportation Economics Division, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Transportation and Marketing Program, Agricultural Marketing Service, Washington DC, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2025 Mar 31;20(3):e0319815. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319815. eCollection 2025.
The grain price margins between buyers and sellers (i.e., basis spread) is influenced by the infrastructure used to transport crops from collection points to ports, which can be disrupted by weather extremes like floods and severe storms. Such disruptions are expected to become more frequent, potentially increasing food insecurity and impacting farm incomes. On average, the U.S. accounts for one-third of global corn and soybean production from 2012/13 to 2020/21, so the infrastructure to move crops from the main growing region to the nation's ports is critical to global crop and food markets. Despite the critical nature of these issues, there is limited research specifically examining the effects of weather extremes on the U.S. crop transportation network. This study investigates how weather extremes disrupt crop transportation networks, and, in turn, how those disruptions affect the basis spread of corn and soybeans. It uses basis spread data from nearly 5,000 U.S. midwestern corn and soybean elevators spanning from 2012 to 2020, along with natural disaster declarations to represent weather extremes affecting crop transportation. Using a three-step process, it calculates least cost transportation routes to a port, adjusts for weather disruptions, and integrates disaster, transportation cost, and control variables into a fixed effects, panel data model that explains variation in basis spread. Results show natural disasters, particularly flash floods and winter storms, negatively affect basis spread. The cost effects of natural disasters disrupting crop transportation routes further decrease basis spread. Strengthening crop transportation infrastructure to withstand flooding and winter storms could reduce disruptions in this network. These findings underscore the value of Federal and State policies that prioritize investments in resilient transportation infrastructure, particularly in regions prone to flash floods and winter storms. Strengthening this infrastructure could not only reduce the economic costs of weather disruptions but also affect farm income and food security.
买卖双方之间的谷物价格差（即基差）受用于将作物从收购点运输至港口的基础设施影响，而此类基础设施可能会因洪水和严重风暴等极端天气而中断。预计此类中断将变得更加频繁，有可能加剧粮食不安全并影响农场收入。从2012/13年至2020/21年，美国平均占全球玉米和大豆产量的三分之一，因此将作物从主要种植区运往该国港口的基础设施对全球作物和粮食市场至关重要。尽管这些问题至关重要，但专门研究极端天气对美国作物运输网络影响的研究却很有限。本研究调查极端天气如何扰乱作物运输网络，以及这些扰乱如何反过来影响玉米和大豆的基差。它使用了2012年至2020年期间美国近5000个中西部玉米和大豆升降机的基差数据，以及自然灾害声明来代表影响作物运输的极端天气。通过一个三步过程，它计算出到港口的最低成本运输路线，针对天气干扰进行调整，并将灾害、运输成本和控制变量整合到一个固定效应面板数据模型中，该模型解释了基差的变化。结果表明，自然灾害，尤其是山洪暴发和冬季风暴，对基差有负面影响。扰乱作物运输路线的自然灾害成本效应进一步降低了基差。加强作物运输基础设施以抵御洪水和冬季风暴可以减少该网络中的干扰。这些发现凸显了联邦和州政策的价值，这些政策优先投资于有弹性的运输基础设施，特别是在容易发生山洪暴发和冬季风暴的地区。加强这一基础设施不仅可以降低天气干扰的经济成本，还可以影响农场收入和粮食安全。
