Xie Hou, Ratner Kaylin, Fegley Suzanne G, Nakkula Michael J
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, USA.
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Child Dev. 2025 May-Jun;96(3):1220-1235. doi: 10.1111/cdev.14234. Epub 2025 Apr 1.
This study investigated the development of educational aspirations (EAs) among Chinese youth (n = 2228, 48.61% female, 87.66% Han, M = 11.48 years) for 6 years. Five latent classes of EA trajectories were identified. They varied greatly during early adolescence but converged around an associate degree in middle adolescence and beyond and demonstrated high rank-order stability across the period of study. High academic performance and academic competence (adolescent-reported) and educational involvement, academic expectations, and family socioeconomic status (parent-reported) predicted loftier EA trajectories. Consistent EA beyond an associate degree predicted a greater probability of college enrollment in emerging adulthood. Findings are interpreted with respect to China's sociocultural context, a society characterized by high collectivism and regard for academic achievements.
本研究对2228名中国青少年（女性占48.61%，汉族占87.66%，平均年龄M = 11.48岁）的教育期望发展情况进行了为期6年的调查。确定了教育期望轨迹的五个潜在类别。它们在青春期早期差异很大，但在青春期中期及以后趋于集中在副学士学位水平，并且在整个研究期间表现出较高的等级稳定性。较高的学业成绩和学术能力（青少年自我报告）以及教育参与度、学术期望和家庭社会经济地位（父母报告）预示着更高的教育期望轨迹。副学士学位以上持续一致的教育期望预示着在成年早期进入大学的可能性更大。研究结果结合中国的社会文化背景进行了解释，中国是一个高度集体主义且重视学术成就的社会。
