Li Ao, Zhou Hang, Luo Xuequn, Wang Jiafeng, Tian Jiaxing, Fu Zhixi, Xie Gan, Li Ling, Zhu Lijun, Hua Donglai
College of Resources and Environment Engineering, Mianyang Teachers' College, Mianyang, 621000, China.
College of Life Science & Biotechnology, Mianyang Teachers' College, Mianyang, 621000, China.
BMC Plant Biol. 2025 Apr 5;25(1):438. doi: 10.1186/s12870-025-06466-1.
Climate change significantly affects the distribution of high-altitude plant species, particularly within the Primula Sect. Crystallophlomis found in Southwest China. This clade is valued for its ornamental and medicinal properties. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. crystallophlomis to inform conservation and ecological research.
An optimized Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized to predict the suitable habitat areas of P. crystallophlomis under 9 scenarios, using 161 distribution records and 22 environmental variables. The model parameters were set to RM = 1.5 and FC = LQH, achieving a high prediction accuracy with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.820.
The analysis identified key environmental factors influencing the suitable habitat of P. crystallophlomis, including annual precipitation (bio-12), temperature seasonality (bio-4), mean diurnal range (bio-2), and precipitation seasonality (bio-15). Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats are primarily located in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Mountains, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, exhibiting significant fragmentation. Notable declines in potential habitat area were observed from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Mid-Holocene (MH), with future projections indicating further reductions, particularly under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 (SSP-585) scenario.
The suitable habitat of P. crystallophlomis, which tends to grow in consistently cold and moist environments, is expected to shrink, with a projected southward shift in its centroid. Global warming is anticipated to profoundly impact the suitable habitats of P. crystallophlomis, highlighting the urgent need for conservation efforts.
气候变化显著影响高海拔植物物种的分布，尤其是在中国西南部发现的报春花属的冰雪报春组。该分支因其观赏和药用特性而受到重视。本研究旨在评估气候变化对冰雪报春潜在分布的影响，为保护和生态研究提供信息。
利用优化的最大熵模型（MaxEnt），根据161条分布记录和22个环境变量，预测冰雪报春在9种情景下的适宜栖息地面积。模型参数设置为RM = 1.5和FC = LQH，曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.820，预测准确率较高。
分析确定了影响冰雪报春适宜栖息地的关键环境因素，包括年降水量（bio-12）、温度季节性（bio-4）、平均日较差（bio-2）和降水季节性（bio-15）。在当前气候条件下，适宜栖息地主要位于青藏高原东部、横断山脉和云贵高原，呈现出明显的碎片化。从上新世末次冰盛期（LGM）到中全新世（MH），潜在栖息地面积显著减少，未来预测表明还会进一步减少，特别是在共享社会经济路径585（SSP-585）情景下。
冰雪报春适宜在持续寒冷潮湿的环境中生长，其适宜栖息地预计将缩小，重心预计向南移动。预计全球变暖将对冰雪报春的适宜栖息地产生深远影响，凸显了保护工作的紧迫性。
