An analysis of US net cancer drug launch prices and clinical efficacy and certainty of evidence from 2008 to 2022.

Over the last 15 years, cancer drug prices have increased substantially in the United States (US), with question marks on whether this can be justified based on improved patient outcomes. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between US cancer drug net launch prices and clinical efficacy and certainty of evidence. FDA-approved cancer drug indications from 2008 to 2022 were extracted and matched with net launch price data, 5 distinct measures of clinical efficacy, and measures on the certainty of evidence around the clinical efficacy. Descriptive statistics and linear regression models were used to assess if higher net launch prices were associated with better patient outcomes. Cancer drug launch prices (net per 1 year/course of treatment) have increased from around $100 000 in 2008 to $200 000 in 2022. The results did not support the idea that drugs with higher net launch prices had more impressive clinical efficacy or more robust evidence around the clinical efficacy. US cancer launch prices do not seem to be value-based, which may imply distorted incentives for the allocation of research and development investments.