Wang Lei, Zhang Yaping, Chen Xu
School of Information Science and Technology, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China.
Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Apr 7;20(4):e0320090. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0320090. eCollection 2025.
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a crucial global carbon reservoir, plays an essential role in the carbon cycle. This study used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to analyze land use and carbon storage changes from 2000 to 2020, and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to predict land use trends and carbon storage for 2030 and 2040 under various scenarios, combining carbon density data. The impact of driving factors on carbon storage and spatial heterogeneity were assessed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. Results showed a fluctuating increase in carbon storage, mainly from grasslands and forests, with soil organic carbon as the largest pool. Positive factors included Digital Elevation Model (DEM), temperature, proximity to railways, roads, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), while aridity was negative. Predictions suggest carbon storage will rise across all scenarios, with ecological protection showing the largest increase. This study comprehensively analyzes the impact of climate and land use changes on carbon storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, enhances understanding of the plateau's ecosystem sustainability, and supports policy-making.
青藏高原是全球重要的碳库，在碳循环中发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究利用生态系统服务与权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型分析了2000年至2020年的土地利用和碳储量变化，并结合碳密度数据，使用土地利用模拟生成斑块（PLUS）模型预测了不同情景下2030年和2040年的土地利用趋势和碳储量。利用普通最小二乘法（OLS）和地理加权回归（GWR）模型评估了驱动因素对碳储量和空间异质性的影响。结果表明，碳储量呈波动增加趋势，主要来自草地和森林，土壤有机碳是最大的碳库。正向因素包括数字高程模型（DEM）、温度、与铁路、道路的距离以及归一化植被指数（NDVI），而干旱则为负向因素。预测表明，所有情景下碳储量都将增加，其中生态保护情景下增加幅度最大。本研究全面分析了气候和土地利用变化对青藏高原碳储量的影响，增进了对高原生态系统可持续性的理解，并为政策制定提供了支持。
