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新冠疫情对台湾地区非传染性慢性病死亡率的影响:一项干预性时间序列研究

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Mortality Rates From Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in Taiwan: An Interventional Time Series Study.

作者信息

Liao Chen-Mao, Kao Yi-Wei, Lin Chih-Ming, Lai Pei-Yu

机构信息

Department of Applied Statistics and Information Science, Ming Chuan University, Taoyuan, Taiwan.

Department of Healthcare Information and Management, Ming Chuan University, Taoyuan, Taiwan.

出版信息

Int J Public Health. 2025 Mar 28;70:1607723. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2025.1607723. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.3389/ijph.2025.1607723
PMID:40226848
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11985332/
Abstract

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether the likelihood of death from non-communicable diseases nationwide was heightened during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Data on mortality caused by seven leading non-communicable chronic diseases from 2011 to 2022 were extracted from Taiwan's Death Registry. Monthly standardized mortality rates were analyzed using an intervention time series model.

RESULTS

The monthly mortality rate showed a significant upward trend during the pandemic in the rate of mortality due to heart diseases, diabetes, and hypertension diseases (p < 0.001). The 2021 monthly rates of mortality caused by the three diseases showed a significant increase of 4.3%, 8.2%, and 13.4%, respectively, compared to the 2020 rates and continued until the end of the study period. No upward or downward post-intervention shift was observed for malignant tumors, renal disease, and liver diseases.

CONCLUSION

Adverse individual behaviors and reduced health services might have raised severe concerns for patients with cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Health promotion and medical resource allocation are crucial for patients with disadvantaged health and sociodemographic factors and related metabolic conditions during the pandemic.

摘要

目的

研究在新冠疫情期间全国范围内非传染性疾病导致的死亡可能性是否增加。

方法

从台湾地区死亡登记处提取2011年至2022年七种主要非传染性慢性病所致死亡数据。使用干预时间序列模型分析每月标准化死亡率。

结果

在疫情期间,心脏病、糖尿病和高血压疾病的死亡率月度死亡率呈显著上升趋势(p<0.001)。与2020年相比,这三种疾病2021年的月度死亡率分别显著上升了4.3%、8.2%和13.4%,并持续到研究期结束。未观察到恶性肿瘤、肾病和肝病在干预后有上升或下降趋势。

结论

不良个人行为和医疗服务减少可能引起心血管疾病和糖尿病患者的严重担忧。在疫情期间,促进健康和医疗资源分配对健康状况和社会人口因素不利以及患有相关代谢疾病的患者至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/00ed/11985332/4ad17786d061/ijph-70-1607723-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/00ed/11985332/4ad17786d061/ijph-70-1607723-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/00ed/11985332/4ad17786d061/ijph-70-1607723-g001.jpg

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