Yang Hong-Kui, Zhang Le-le, Liu Xiao-Yang, Yang Ming-Xin, Li You-San
Qinghai Province Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Environmental Process, College of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China.
Xining Natural Resources Comprehensive Surver Center, China Geological Survey, Xining 810021, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Apr 8;46(4):1951-1963. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202404294.
The change of land use type seriously affects the spatial distribution pattern of regional carbon stocks. Exploring the land use status under future scenarios can provide an important reference for the spatial optimization of land use structure, carbon budget balance, and sustainable development in inland arid areas. Based on the land use types of the Haixi Prefecture in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the characteristics of land use change in the study area over 20 years were analyzed. The PLUS-InVEST model combined with 13 driving factors was used to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of land use and carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection, and urban development scenarios in 2030. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land types in the Haixi Prefecture were grassland and unused land； the area of grassland continued to decrease, mainly transferred to unused and construction land, whereas the area of other land types showed an increasing trend. ② Compared with that in 2020, under the natural development scenario in 2030, the area of forest land will decrease by 204.86 km, indicating a decrease of 24.18%, and the area of grassland will decrease by 4 167.02 km. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of forest land and grassland will increase by 55.47 km and 929.41 km, respectively. Under the urban development scenario, the construction land area will be 672.84 km, indicating an increase of 17.34%. ③ From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage decreased by 162.04×10 t, showing a continuous downward trend. High carbon storage values were distributed in the eastern and southern parts of the study area, while low carbon storage values were mainly distributed in the Qaidam Basin and its periphery. ④ In 2030, carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario will increase by 84.78×10 t and 86.16×10 t compared with that under the natural and urban development scenarios, respectively, indicating that ecological protection can effectively increase carbon storage in the study area. These findings provide data support for rational land use planning and coordinated regional development in the Haixi Prefecture.
土地利用类型的变化严重影响区域碳储量的空间分布格局。探索未来情景下的土地利用状况可为内陆干旱地区土地利用结构的空间优化、碳收支平衡及可持续发展提供重要参考。基于2000年、2010年和2020年海西州的土地利用类型，分析了研究区20年来土地利用变化特征。运用PLUS-InVEST模型结合13个驱动因素，模拟预测了2030年自然发展、生态保护和城市发展情景下土地利用和碳储量的时空分布特征。结果表明：①2000年至2020年，海西州主要土地类型为草地和未利用地；草地面积持续减少，主要转移为未利用地和建设用地，其他土地类型面积呈增加趋势。②与2020年相比，2030年自然发展情景下，林地面积将减少204.86平方千米，降幅为24.18%，草地面积将减少4167.02平方千米。生态保护情景下，林地和草地面积将分别增加55.47平方千米和929.41平方千米。城市发展情景下，建设用地面积将达到672.84平方千米，增幅为17.34%。③2000年至2020年，总碳储量减少了162.04×10吨，呈持续下降趋势。高碳储量值分布在研究区东部和南部，低碳储量值主要分布在柴达木盆地及其周边地区。④2030年，生态保护情景下的碳储量分别比自然发展和城市发展情景增加84.78×10吨和86.16×10吨，表明生态保护能有效增加研究区的碳储量。这些研究结果为海西州合理的土地利用规划和区域协调发展提供了数据支持。
