Sahat Oraya, Bilheem Surichai, Lim Apiradee, Kamsa-Ard Siriporn, Suwannatrai Apiporn Thinkhamrop, Uadrang Surin, Leklob Atit, Chansaard Wasan, Sriket Nithima, Santong Chalongpon, Daoprasert Karnchana, Kamsa-Ard Supot
Student of Doctor of Public Health Program, Faculty of Public Health, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, Thailand.
Sirindhorn College of Public Health Yala, Faculty of Public Health and Allied Health Sciences, Praboromarajchanok Institute, Yala, Thailand.
Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia. 2025 Mar 29;35:100569. doi: 10.1016/j.lansea.2025.100569. eCollection 2025 Apr.
Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a significant health concern in Thailand, as the age-standardized rates (ASR) and other trends fluctuate across different regions. However, comprehensive national estimates are lacking. This study examined the Thai ASR of CCA trends from 2012 to 2021 and projected the incidence rates to 2026.
This retrospective cohort analysis examined 6379 CCA cases from population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) in the northern, central, northeastern, and southern regions for the time period January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021. The Joinpoint, age-period-cohort, and Nordpred models were used to assess CCA incidence trends and predictions.
CCA incidence trends in Thailand showed a decrease, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -7.20% (95% CI: -11.04 to -3.19) for males, and -5.81% (95% CI: -10.81 to -0.54) for females. The projected incidence rate per 100,000 person-years for 2026 varied slightly according to the model: Joinpoint (males: 6.1, females: 3.4), age-period-cohort (males: 6.0, females: 3.3), and Nordpred (males: 5.5, females: 3.4). Regional analyses revealed decreasing trends in the northern and northeastern regions, with 2026 projections indicating further declines exceeding the 10-year trends. Owing to the small sample size, trends in the central and southern regions could not be determined.
Thailand's CCA rate has generally decreased but varies geographically; the northern and northeastern regions remain at high risk. To minimize CCA nationally, initiatives should be maintained, new risk factors explored, diagnostics improved, and regional variances addressed.
The Graduate School of Khon Kaen University.
胆管癌（CCA）是泰国一个重大的健康问题，因为年龄标准化发病率（ASR）和其他趋势在不同地区有所波动。然而，目前缺乏全面的全国性评估。本研究调查了2012年至2021年泰国CCA趋势的年龄标准化发病率，并预测了到2026年的发病率。
这项回顾性队列分析研究了2012年1月1日至2021年12月31日期间，来自北部、中部、东北部和南部地区基于人群的癌症登记处（PBCRs）的6379例CCA病例。使用Joinpoint、年龄-时期-队列和Nordpred模型来评估CCA发病率趋势和预测。
泰国CCA发病率呈下降趋势，男性的平均年百分比变化（AAPC）为-7.20%（95%CI：-11.04至-3.19），女性为-5.81%（95%CI：-10.81至-0.54）。根据模型不同，2026年每10万人年的预测发病率略有差异：Joinpoint模型（男性：6.1，女性：3.4）、年龄-时期-队列模型（男性：6.0，女性：3.3）和Nordpred模型（男性：5.5，女性：3.4）。区域分析显示北部和东北部地区呈下降趋势，2026年的预测表明进一步下降幅度超过10年趋势。由于样本量较小，无法确定中部和南部地区的趋势。
泰国的CCA发病率总体呈下降趋势，但存在地域差异；北部和东北部地区仍然风险较高。为了在全国范围内将CCA发病率降至最低，应维持现有举措，探索新的风险因素，改进诊断方法，并解决区域差异问题。
孔敬大学研究生院。
