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随机临床试验中观察者偏倚的实证证据:对采用盲法和非盲法结果评估者的试验进行更新和扩展分析。

Empirical evidence of observer bias in randomized clinical trials: updated and expanded analysis of trials with both blinded and non-blinded outcome assessors.

作者信息

Salazar Josefina, Moustgaard Helene, Bracchiglione Javier, Hróbjartsson Asbjørn

机构信息

Cochrane Denmark and Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Odense (CEBMO), Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense 5230, Denmark; Open Patient data Exploratory Network (OPEN), Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark.

Cochrane Denmark and Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Odense (CEBMO), Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense 5230, Denmark; Open Patient data Exploratory Network (OPEN), Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark.

出版信息

J Clin Epidemiol. 2025 Jul;183:111787. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111787. Epub 2025 Apr 19.


DOI:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111787
PMID:40258524
Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To study the impact of lack of blinding of outcome assessors on estimated treatment effects of randomized clinical trials. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Meta-epidemiological study. We included randomized trials with binary or measurement scale outcomes that (1) allocated patients to subtrials with and without blinded outcome assessment, or (2) had both blinded and non-blinded assessments of the same outcome. We identified trials from previous meta-epidemiological studies and searched six databases from 2013 to 2024. We calculated a ratio of odds ratios (ROR) for each trial. A ROR < 1 indicated a more favorable effect estimate by the non-blinded assessor. We pooled RORs using random effects meta-analysis and conducted meta-regression, subgroup, and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: We included 66 trials (9451 patients) across 18 clinical specialties. The pooled RORs in 43 trials (7055 patients) was 0.71 (0.55-0.92). Thirty of the 43 trials assessed highly subjective outcomes. Meta-regression showed no statistically significant association between ROR and scores for outcome subjectivity (P = .53), vulnerability (P = .91), and involvement (P = .99). Heterogeneity was partly explained by a larger impact in non-drug trials, ROR 0.62 (0.46-0.84), and industry-funded trials, ROR 0.57 (0.37-0.88). Sensitivity analyses, including imputed data for 23 trials (2396 patients randomized), did not modify the observed impact importantly. CONCLUSION: We provide empirical evidence of considerable bias in effect estimates of randomized trials with non-blinded assessors of subjective binary and measurement scale outcomes. Non-blinded assessors exaggerated effect estimates, expressed as odds ratios, by 29% (8%-45%) on average. This strongly supports blinding outcome assessors of subjective outcomes. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: In a randomized clinical trial, the person evaluating the results (assessor) may be either unaware of the intervention received by participants (blinded assessor) or aware of it (non-blinded assessor). Knowing which treatment a patient received can influence the assessor's evaluation of the effect; for example, if an assessor has high expectations for a new experimental intervention, they may rate a patient's improvement more favorably in the group that received the intervention compared to the group that did not. We call this observer bias. In this study, we compared the results obtained from blinded assessors to those from non-blinded assessors within the same trials to estimate the impact of observer bias in randomized trials. We found that non-blinded assessors exaggerated the experimental intervention effect by approximately 29%, on average, compared to blinded assessors. Our results indicate that when an evaluation of a patient in a randomized trial requires judgment, there is potential for substantial bias if assessors are not blinded. To ensure more reliable results, randomized clinical trials should blind assessors whenever possible.

摘要

目的:研究结局评估者未设盲对随机临床试验估计治疗效果的影响。 研究设计与设置:Meta流行病学研究。我们纳入了具有二分类或计量尺度结局的随机试验,这些试验(1)将患者分配至结局评估设盲和未设盲的子试验中,或(2)对同一结局进行了设盲和未设盲评估。我们从既往Meta流行病学研究中识别试验,并在2013年至2024年期间检索了六个数据库。我们为每个试验计算比值比(OR)的比值(ROR)。ROR < 1表明未设盲评估者的效应估计更有利。我们使用随机效应Meta分析汇总ROR,并进行Meta回归、亚组分析和敏感性分析。 结果:我们纳入了18个临床专科的66项试验(9451例患者)。43项试验(7055例患者)的汇总ROR为0.71(0.55 - 0.92)。43项试验中的30项评估了高度主观的结局。Meta回归显示ROR与结局主观性得分(P = 0.53)、易受影响性得分(P = 0.91)和参与度得分(P = 0.99)之间无统计学显著关联。非药物试验(ROR 0.62,0.46 - 0.84)和行业资助试验(ROR 0.57,0.37 - 0.88)中的较大影响部分解释了异质性。敏感性分析,包括23项试验(2396例随机分组患者)的插补数据,并未显著改变观察到的影响。 结论:我们提供了实证证据,表明对于主观二分类和计量尺度结局,未设盲评估者的随机试验效应估计存在相当大的偏差。未设盲评估者将以比值比表示的效应估计平均夸大了29%(8% - 45%)。这有力地支持了对主观结局的评估者进行设盲。 通俗易懂的总结:在随机临床试验中,评估结果的人(评估者)可能不知道参与者接受的干预措施(设盲评估者),也可能知道(未设盲评估者)。知道患者接受了哪种治疗会影响评估者对效果的评估;例如,如果评估者对一种新的实验性干预有很高的期望,他们可能会比未接受干预的组更积极地评价接受干预组患者的改善情况。我们将此称为观察者偏倚。在本研究中,我们比较了同一试验中设盲评估者和未设盲评估者获得的结果,以估计随机试验中观察者偏倚的影响。我们发现,与设盲评估者相比,未设盲评估者平均将实验性干预效果夸大了约29%。我们的结果表明,当随机试验中对患者的评估需要判断时,如果评估者未设盲,就有可能出现实质性偏差。为确保结果更可靠,随机临床试验应尽可能使评估者设盲。

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