Couturier Caroline, Vilain Pascal, Cooley Lindsay S, Filleul Laurent
Santé Publique France, Cellule en Région Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Bordeaux, France.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Apr 21;25(1):1469. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22746-9.
In France, early detection of bronchiolitis epidemics relies on a multi-source surveillance system. However, this system is unable to measure epidemic severity in real time. Such information would enable faster alerts to decision-makers and medical facilities, allowing healthcare provision to be adapted more effectively. This additional information would provide healthcare decision-makers and care structures to be alerted more quickly and to adapt their healthcare provision in a reactive way. In this context, we conducted a study to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics in children under two years of age, from 2017/18 to 2022/23, in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France.
The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) was used to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics, based on three indicators, obtained from three data sources: (1) virus transmissibility, using data from the SOS Medecins network; (2) impact on the hospital system, assessed via emergency departments (ED) data and (3) gravity, using hospital data. Epidemic thresholds and intensity levels were determined by estimating the parameters of MEM.
The 2020/21 epidemic was delayed and less severe compared to preceding seasons (2017-2020) across all indicators. In contrast, the 2021/22 and 2022/23 epidemics began early, with prolonged durations. Notably, the 2022/23 epidemic was particularly severe in terms of its impact on the hospital system.
The intensity of bronchiolitis epidemics in Nouvelle-Aquitaine (2017-2023) was assessed using MEM. This method is a simple, rapid and effective tool for guiding public health interventions.
在法国，毛细支气管炎疫情的早期检测依赖于多源监测系统。然而，该系统无法实时衡量疫情的严重程度。此类信息将使能更快地向决策者和医疗机构发出警报，从而更有效地调整医疗服务。这些额外信息将使医疗决策者和护理机构更快得到警报，并以应对性方式调整其医疗服务。在此背景下，我们开展了一项研究，以评估2017/18年至2022/23年期间法国新阿基坦地区两岁以下儿童毛细支气管炎疫情的严重程度。
采用移动疫情法（MEM）评估毛细支气管炎疫情的严重程度，该方法基于从三个数据源获得的三个指标：（1）病毒传播性，使用医生急救网络的数据；（2）对医院系统的影响，通过急诊科数据进行评估；（3）严重程度，使用医院数据。通过估计MEM的参数来确定疫情阈值和强度水平。
与之前各季节（2017 - 2020年）相比，2020/21年的疫情出现延迟且严重程度较低。相比之下，2021/22年和2022/23年的疫情开始较早，持续时间较长。值得注意的是，2022/23年的疫情对医院系统的影响尤为严重。
使用MEM评估了新阿基坦地区（2017 - 2023年）毛细支气管炎疫情的强度。该方法是指导公共卫生干预的一种简单、快速且有效的工具。
