Ayubi Erfan, Niksiar Sharareh, Keshtpour Amlashi Zahra, Talebi-Ghane Elaheh
Cancer Research Center, Institute of Cancer, Avicenna Health Research Institute, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Hamadan Cancer Registry, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
J Res Health Sci. 2025 Apr 1;25(2):e00650. doi: 10.34172/jrhs.2025.185.
Exploring the pattern of diseases in space and time enhances our understanding of truly needy areas. The present study aimed to explore spatiotemporal mapping of colorectal cancer (CRC) and gastric cancer (GC) incidence using Bayesian models and space-time scan statistics in Hamadan Province from 2010 to 2019. An ecological time-series study.
In this study, the data on CRC and GC cases were obtained from Hamadan cancer registry. The crude standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was calculated for each county per year. Hierarchical Bayesian space-time models were fitted to estimate adjusted SIRs. Space time cluster analysis was performed using space-time scan statistic.
A total of 1864 CRC cases and 2340 GC cases were included in the analyses. The central counties, including Hamadan (smoothed SIR range: 1.24-1.28) and Tuyserkan (1.01-1.24), exhibited higher than expected number of CRC cases. Northern counties such as Razan (1.19-1.51) and Kabudarahang (1.21-1.42), along with Nahavand in the south (0.98, 1.53), also showed higher than expected number of GC cases. The most likely spatiotemporal cluster of CRC was identified in Hamadan and Tuyserkan occurring between 2015 and 2019 (relative risk [RR]=1.82, <0.001). The most likely spatiotemporal cluster of GC was identified in Nahavand from 2010 to 2011 (RR=1.87, <0.001).
Spatiotemporal inequality in the incidence of CRC and GC was identified in Hamadan province over the past decade. The findings may help to reduce cancer disparities and allocate effective resources in the appropriate region and time in the future.
探索疾病在空间和时间上的模式有助于我们了解真正需要帮助的地区。本研究旨在利用贝叶斯模型和时空扫描统计方法，对2010年至2019年哈马丹省结直肠癌（CRC）和胃癌（GC）的发病率进行时空映射。这是一项生态时间序列研究。
在本研究中，CRC和GC病例的数据来自哈马丹癌症登记处。每年计算每个县的粗标准化发病率（SIR）。采用分层贝叶斯时空模型来估计调整后的SIR。使用时空扫描统计方法进行时空聚类分析。
分析共纳入1864例CRC病例和2340例GC病例。中部各县，包括哈马丹（平滑SIR范围：1.24 - 1.28）和图伊斯尔坎（1.01 - 1.24），结直肠癌病例数高于预期。北部各县，如拉赞（1.19 - 1.51）和卡布达拉杭（1.21 - 1.42），以及南部的纳哈万德（0.98, 1.53），胃癌病例数也高于预期。CRC最可能的时空聚类出现在2015年至2019年期间的哈马丹和图伊斯尔坎（相对风险[RR]=1.82，<0.001）。GC最可能的时空聚类出现在2010年至2011年的纳哈万德（RR=1.87，<0.001）。
在过去十年中，哈马丹省CRC和GC发病率存在时空不平等。这些发现可能有助于减少癌症差异，并在未来的适当地区和时间分配有效资源。
