Bao Yongbin, Gele Teri, Liu Xingpeng, Tong Zhijun, Zhang Jiquan
School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China.
Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130024, China.
Insects. 2025 Feb 28;16(3):249. doi: 10.3390/insects16030249.
The pine caterpillar ( Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) is a destructive insect threatening forest communities across Eurasia. The pest is polyvoltine, and under global warming, more favorable temperatures can lead to additional generations. Here, we simulated the pine caterpillar voltinism under current and future climatic scenarios based on insect thermal physiology and cumulative growing degree day (CGDD) model. Subsequently, we revealed the future change patterns of the voltinism along elevational and latitudinal gradients. The results showed that both CGDD and pine caterpillar voltinism are increasing. The current voltinism of pine caterpillar ranges from 1.26 to 1.56 generations (1.40 ± 0.07), with an increasing trend of 0.04/10a. Similar trends are expected to continue under the future climate scenarios, with values of 0.01/10a, 0.05/10a, 0.07/10a, and 0.09/10a for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. At the elevation and latitudinal gradients, voltinism increases across all ranges, peaking at 500-1000 m and latitudes of 34-34.5° N. This study highlights that the increase in voltinism is not limited to low-elevation and -latitude regions but is predicted across various elevations and latitudes. These findings can enhance our understanding of how climate change affects pine caterpillar voltinism and contribute to forest pest management strategies, although this study assumes a linear relationship between temperature and voltinism, without considering other ecological factors.
松毛虫（巴特勒，鳞翅目：枯叶蛾科）是一种具有破坏性的昆虫，威胁着欧亚大陆的森林群落。这种害虫具有多化性，在全球变暖的情况下，更适宜的温度会导致额外的世代出现。在此，我们基于昆虫热生理学和累积生长度日（CGDD）模型，模拟了当前和未来气候情景下松毛虫的化性。随后，我们揭示了化性沿海拔和纬度梯度的未来变化模式。结果表明，CGDD和松毛虫化性都在增加。松毛虫当前的化性范围为1.26至1.56代（1.40±0.07），增长趋势为0.04/10年。在未来气候情景下预计会持续类似趋势，SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下的增长趋势分别为0.01/10年、0.05/10年、0.07/10年和0.09/10年。在海拔和纬度梯度上，化性在所有范围内都增加，在海拔500 - 1000米和北纬34 - 34.5°达到峰值。本研究强调，化性的增加不仅限于低海拔和低纬度地区，预计在各种海拔和纬度都会出现。这些发现可以增进我们对气候变化如何影响松毛虫化性的理解，并有助于制定森林害虫管理策略，尽管本研究假设温度和化性之间存在线性关系，未考虑其他生态因素。
