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[广东省气温与动物致伤风险的关联研究]

[Study on the association between temperature and the risk of injuries by animals in Guangdong Province].

作者信息

Zeng W Q, Xu Y J, Zheng A X, Hu J X, Fang Y, Guo M E, Liang K Q, Ye S H, Zhu Q J, He G H, Liu T, Meng R L, Ma W J

机构信息

Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.

Institute of Control and Prevention for Chronic Non-infective Disease, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2025 Apr 10;46(4):587-595. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240910-00565.

Abstract

To assess the association between temperature and risk of animal injury, and identifying vulnerable populations. Based on a time-stratified case-crossover design, the number of animal injuries monitored in hospitals of Guangdong Provincial Injury Surveillance System in 2011 and 2015-2016 was included, and the daily meteorological data were derived from the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis-Land, which was produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Conditional logistic regression combined with a distributed lagged nonlinear model was applied to analyze the association of temperature and animal-specific injuries. We also conducted stratified analysis by region, sex, age, occupation, and location of injury occurrence. There was an almost linear relationship between temperature and the occurrence of animal injury. The excess risk () of animal injury was 2.65% (95%: 2.27%-3.04%) for a 1 ℃ rise in temperature with much higher risk of occurrence (=9.34%, 95%: 7.57%-11.13%) for non-mammalian injury than that for mammalian injuries (=2.30%, 95%: 1.90%-2.70%). Stratified analysis revealed that the occurrence of animal injury was more susceptible to temperature influences in urban (=2.78%, 95%: 2.35%-3.21%), female (=2.71%, 95%: 2.16%-3.27%), the elderly aged 60 years and above (=3.05%, 95%: 1.65%- 4.47%), farmer (=4.66%, 95%: 3.03%-6.32%) and agricultural area (=10.63%, 95%: 7.57%-13.79%) than their correspondents. In terms of mammalian injury, dog bites showed the highest risk (=2.71%, 95%: 2.12%-3.30%). In terms of non-mammalian,snake injuries were highly influenced by temperature (=16.74%, 95%: 11.33%-22.40%). The ambient temperature rises could increase the risk of animal injury with much higher risk for non-mammalian than that for mammalian injuries. Our findings suggest that global warming may increase the risk and disease burden from animal injuries.

摘要

评估温度与动物致伤风险之间的关联,并确定易感人群。基于时间分层病例交叉设计,纳入了2011年以及2015 - 2016年广东省伤害监测系统中各医院监测到的动物致伤数量,每日气象数据源自欧洲中期天气预报中心生成的第五代欧洲再分析陆面数据。应用条件逻辑回归结合分布滞后非线性模型分析温度与特定动物致伤之间的关联。我们还按地区、性别、年龄、职业以及致伤发生地点进行了分层分析。温度与动物致伤的发生之间存在近似线性关系。温度每升高1℃,动物致伤的超额风险()为2.65%(95%:2.27% - 3.04%),非哺乳动物致伤的发生风险(=9.34%,95%:7.57% -  11.13%)远高于哺乳动物致伤(=2.30%,95%:1.90% - 2.70%)。分层分析显示,城市(=2.78%,95%:2.35% - 3.21%)、女性(=2.71%,95%:2.16% - 3.27%)、60岁及以上老年人(=3.05%,95%:1.65% - 4.47%)、农民(=4.66%,95%:3.03% - 6.32%)以及农业地区(=10.63%,95%:7.57% - 13.79%)的动物致伤发生比相应对照人群更易受温度影响。就哺乳动物致伤而言,狗咬伤风险最高(=2.71%,95%:2.12% - 3.30%)。就非哺乳动物致伤而言,蛇伤受温度影响极大(=16.74%,95%:11.33% -  22.40%)。环境温度升高会增加动物致伤风险,非哺乳动物致伤风险远高于哺乳动物致伤。我们的研究结果表明,全球变暖可能会增加动物致伤的风险和疾病负担。

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