Zheng Yufan, Yue Keqi, Wong Eric W M, Yuan Hsiang-Yu
Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.
Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.
Infect Dis Model. 2025 Apr 15;10(3):840-849. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.002. eCollection 2025 Sep.
While mosquitoes, the Dengue vectors, are expected to expand due to climate change, the impact of human mobility on them is largely unclear. Changes in human mobility, such as staying at home during the pandemic, likely affect mosquito abundance.
We aimed to assess the influence of human mobility on the abundance and extensiveness of , taking account of the nonlinear lagged effects of weather, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.
Google human mobility indices (including residential, parks, and workplaces) and weather conditions (total rainfall and mean temperature) along with abundance and extensiveness, monitored using Gravidtrap were collected between April 2020 and August 2022. Distributed lag non-linear models with mixed-effects models were used to explore their influence in three areas of Hong Kong.
Time spent at home (i.e., residential mobility) was negatively associated with mosquito abundance. The model projected that if residential mobility in 2022 was returned to the pre-pandemic level, the mosquito abundance would increase by an average of 80.49 % compared to actual observation. The relative risk (RR) of mosquito abundance was associated with low rainfall (<50 mm) after 4.5 months, peaking at 1.73, compared with 300 mm. Heavy rainfall (>500 mm) within 3 months was also associated with a peak RR of 1.41. Warm conditions (21-30 °C, compared with 20 °C) were associated with a higher RR of 1.47 after half a month.
Human mobility is a critical factor along with weather conditions in mosquito prediction, and a stay-at-home policy may be an effective intervention to control .
登革热传播媒介蚊子预计会因气候变化而扩散，然而人类流动对其产生的影响在很大程度上尚不清楚。诸如在疫情期间居家等人类流动的变化，可能会影响蚊子的数量。
我们旨在评估在香港的新冠疫情期间，考虑到天气的非线性滞后效应，人类流动对蚊子数量及分布范围的影响。
收集了2020年4月至2022年8月期间谷歌人类流动指数（包括住宅区、公园和工作场所）、天气状况（总降雨量和平均温度）以及使用诱蚊产卵器监测到的蚊子数量和分布范围。采用带有混合效应模型的分布滞后非线性模型，来探究它们在香港三个地区的影响。
在家停留时间（即居住流动性）与蚊子数量呈负相关。该模型预测，如果2022年的居住流动性恢复到疫情前水平，与实际观测相比，蚊子数量将平均增加80.49%。4.5个月后，降雨量低（<50毫米）时蚊子数量的相对风险（RR）与降雨量300毫米时相比，峰值为1.73。3个月内的暴雨（>500毫米）也与RR峰值1.41相关。半个月后，温暖的条件（21 - 30°C，与20°C相比）与更高的RR值1.47相关。
人类流动是蚊子预测中与天气状况同样关键的因素，居家政策可能是控制蚊子的有效干预措施。
