Yun Xiaobo, Wang Jianwen, Bao Hongjun
National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory, Beijing, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 28;15(1):14925. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98651-3.
The hydrological extremes, caused by increasing regional extreme precipitation and melting glaciers or snow under climate change, pose a major challenge to reservoir management in Tianshan Mountain Range of China. Modeling and assessment of hydrological extremes are important measures to ensure the safety of reservoir operations and regional water resources. However, insufficient assessment of hydrological extremes faced by reservoirs in Tianshan Mountain Range has limited the development of flood risk assessment and early warning methods for mountain reservoirs. To this end, based on the VIC-CAS-R model that coupled with glacier snowmelt and reservoir modules, this study analyzed and evaluated the changing characteristics of precipitation and streamflow of selected mountain reservoirs in Tianshan Mountain Range from 1961 to 2014, and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and Mann-Kendall test were used to identify hydrological extremes as well as the changing trends. The result indicated that (1) the precipitation and streamflow of reservoirs in Tianshan Mountain Range showed a segmented change trend of "increasing-decreasing-increasing"; (2) The hydrological extremes of reservoirs in Tianshan Mountain Range showed notable variations in temporal and spatial distribution, reservoirs located in the western area faced a decrease in wet hydrological extremes (up to 70.8%) and an increase in dry hydrological extremes (up to 73.9%), while reservoir in the eastern region experienced a simultaneous increase in dry and wet hydrological extremes (up to 119.8%). These insights help to deepen the comprehension of the changing characteristics of hydrological extremes induced by climate change in Tianshan Mountain Range reservoirs, and provide support for predicting hydrological extremes in other arid inland mountain regions.
气候变化导致区域极端降水增加以及冰川和积雪融化，由此引发的水文极端事件对中国天山山脉的水库管理构成了重大挑战。水文极端事件的模拟和评估是确保水库运行安全和区域水资源安全的重要措施。然而，对天山山脉水库所面临的水文极端事件评估不足，限制了山区水库洪水风险评估和预警方法的发展。为此，本研究基于耦合了冰川融雪和水库模块的VIC-CAS-R模型，分析评估了1961—2014年天山山脉部分山区水库降水和径流的变化特征，并采用标准化径流指数（SSI）和曼肯德尔检验识别水文极端事件及其变化趋势。结果表明：（1）天山山脉水库的降水和径流呈“增加—减少—增加”的分段变化趋势；（2）天山山脉水库的水文极端事件在时空分布上存在显著差异，位于西部地区的水库面临湿水文极端事件减少（高达70.8%）和干水文极端事件增加（高达73.9%）的情况，而东部地区的水库干湿水文极端事件均增加（高达119.8%）。这些认识有助于加深对天山山脉水库气候变化诱发水文极端事件变化特征的理解，并为预测其他干旱内陆山区的水文极端事件提供支撑。
