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近年来干旱山区极端日气候的变化——以中国西北部祁连山为例。

Recent changes in daily climate extremes in an arid mountain region, a case study in northwestern China's Qilian Mountains.

机构信息

Linze Inland River Basin Research Station, Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology of Inland River Basin, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China.

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2017 May 22;7(1):2245. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-02345-4.

Abstract

Changes in climate extremes pose far-reaching consequences to ecological processes and hydrologic cycles in alpine ecosystems of the arid mountain regions. Therefore, regional assessments in various climates and mountain regions are needed for understanding the uncertainties of the change trends for extreme climate events. The objective of this study was to assess the spatial distribution and temporal trends of extreme precipitation and temperature events responses to global warming on the arid mountain regions of China. Results found that temperature extremes exhibited a significant warming trend, consistent with global warming. Warming trend in autumn and winter were greater than in spring and summer. Besides, precipitation extremes also exhibited statistically increase trend, such as number of days with heavy precipitation and rain day precipitation, etc. The distribution of the number of rainy days was showed a significant increasing trend in many sites, indicating that the increase of rain day precipitation mainly contributed by the increase of single precipitation event duration and moderate-rain days. The greater increasing trend of extreme climate events mainly existed in higher altitudes. This results lend an evidence to earlier predictions that the climate in northwestern China is changing from cold-dry to warm-wet.

摘要

气候变化极端事件对干旱山区高山生态系统的生态过程和水文循环产生了深远的影响。因此,需要对不同气候和山区进行区域评估,以了解极端气候事件变化趋势的不确定性。本研究旨在评估极端降水和温度事件对中国干旱山区全球变暖的空间分布和时间趋势的响应。结果表明,温度极端事件表现出显著的变暖趋势,与全球变暖一致。秋季和冬季的变暖趋势大于春季和夏季。此外,降水极端事件也表现出明显的增加趋势,如强降水日数和雨日降水等。许多站点的雨天数分布呈显著增加趋势,表明雨日降水的增加主要归因于单次降水事件持续时间和中雨日数的增加。极端气候事件的较大增加趋势主要存在于较高海拔地区。这些结果为中国西北地区的气候正在从寒冷干燥向温暖湿润转变的早期预测提供了证据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e1a0/5440392/8163aa5a1558/41598_2017_2345_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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