Flasco M T, Heck D W, Cieniewicz E J, Cooper M L, Pethybridge S J, Fuchs M F
Plant Pathology and Plant-Microbe Biology Section, Cornell University, Geneva, NY, USA.
Plant Pathology and Crop Physiology, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.
Npj Viruses. 2025 Apr 15;3(1):29. doi: 10.1038/s44298-025-00111-2.
Red blotch disease, a threat to the grape industry, is caused by grapevine red blotch virus. This work is the first to study epidemiological patterns in a vineyard over the course of a decade, revealing an increase in disease incidence from 3.9% in 2014 to 36.4% in 2023 with rapid virus spread proximal to a transmission hotspot. Logistic and exponential models provided the best fit of spread in areas of high and low disease incidence and aggregation, respectively. An inverse spatial incidence of virus strains 1 and 2 suggested secondary spread mostly from diseased to neighboring vines and virus influx from background sources. Precipitation (3-4 years later) and air temperature (the same or 1 year later) significantly influenced epidemic parameters. Finally, asymptomatic infections contributed to spatial aggregations at increasing lags. These findings were salient for considering zonal roguing, the removal of diseased and surrounding vines, as a disease management option.
葡萄红斑点病是葡萄产业面临的一大威胁，由葡萄红斑点病毒引起。这项研究首次对一个葡萄园长达十年间的流行病学模式展开研究，结果显示发病率从2014年的3.9%上升至2023年的36.4%，且在靠近一个传播热点的区域病毒迅速扩散。逻辑模型和指数模型分别对疾病高发病率和低发病率及聚集区域的传播情况拟合效果最佳。病毒株1和2的空间发病率呈反比，这表明二次传播主要是从患病葡萄藤传播至相邻葡萄藤，且病毒是从背景源流入。降水量（3至4年后）和气温（同年或1年后）对流行参数有显著影响。最后，无症状感染在越来越长的时间滞后下导致了空间聚集。这些研究结果对于将分区拔除病株（即拔除患病葡萄藤及其周围葡萄藤）作为一种病害管理选项具有重要意义。
