Time series analysis for forecasting neonatal intensive care unit census and neonatal mortality.

BACKGROUND

This study analyzes time series data related to NICU (Neonatal Intensive Care Unit) census numbers, hospitalization days, and mortality rates.

METHODS

We utilized seven years of retrospective daily NICU census data for model development, covering the period from March 2016 to December 2022, encompassing a total of 7,227 infants. We applied the best-fitting models of ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA) to forecast census numbers, lengths of hospital stays, and mortality proportions. Additionally, we conducted regression time series analysis to explore the relationships among these variables.

RESULTS

The mortality proportion peaked in 2017 at 9.94%. The average duration of hospitalization was 12.42 days, with significant variability observed between deceased and surviving neonates. Multiple regression analysis indicated an inverse relationship between the number of hospitalizations and the duration of hospital stays, with a coefficient of -2.58 days (P-value < 0.001). There was also a notable correlation between longer hospital stays and increased mortality, with a regression coefficient (B) of 0.339 (P-value = 0.018). Time series analysis revealed a decreasing trend in mortality proportion in the NICU, alongside seasonal patterns in census numbers, which peaked during the winter months.

CONCLUSION

Seasonal variations were observed, with the highest admissions occurring in the winter months and the shortest hospital stays during this period. Additionally, longer hospital stays were associated with higher mortality. Forecasting using ARIMA and SARIMA models demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, highlighting the importance of effective resource planning to optimize outcomes in the NICU.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

Not applicable.