Agrawal Isha, Sharma Barkha, Varga Csaba
Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA.
U.P. Pandit Deen Dayal Upadhyay Pashu Chikitsa Vigyan Vishwavidyalaya Evam Go Anusandhan Sansthan, Mathura, India.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2024 Mar 22;2024:1343156. doi: 10.1155/2024/1343156. eCollection 2024.
Lumpy skin disease (LSD), a transboundary infectious disease, negatively impacts cattle health and production. The first LSD outbreaks were reported in India in 2019, and since then, LSD spread to over 15 states, including Uttar Pradesh. This study evaluated LSD cases reported by veterinarians in Uttar Pradesh, India, during 2022. Using scan statistics, Poisson models that accounted for the background cattle population were constructed to identify spatial, temporal, and space-time clusters. A negative binomial regression model was built to assess the impact of temperature and humidity on the incidence rate (IR) of LSD. A total of 112,226 cases across 33 districts were reported in 2022. A purely temporal cluster with higher-than-expected LSD rates was identified between August and October 2022. Several purely spatial clusters were identified in the western part of the state. A primary space-time cluster was detected in west Utter Pradesh between August and October 2022 that overlapped with the spatial clusters. The secondary cluster occurred between September and October 2022 in the eastern part of the state. A rise in humidity (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.30-1.49) and temperature (IRR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06-1.27) increased the IR of LSD, suggesting a seasonality of the outbreaks. The results of this study can aid animal health authorities in developing effective LSD prevention, surveillance, and control strategies among cattle in India.
结节性皮肤病（LSD）是一种跨境传染病，对牛的健康和生产产生负面影响。2019年印度首次报告了结节性皮肤病疫情，自那时起，该病已蔓延至包括北方邦在内的15个以上邦。本研究评估了2022年印度北方邦兽医报告的结节性皮肤病病例。使用扫描统计方法，构建了考虑牛群背景数量的泊松模型，以识别空间、时间和时空聚集区。建立了负二项回归模型，以评估温度和湿度对结节性皮肤病发病率（IR）的影响。2022年共报告了33个区的112226例病例。在2022年8月至10月期间发现了一个发病率高于预期的纯时间聚集区。在该邦西部确定了几个纯空间聚集区。2022年8月至10月期间在北方邦西部检测到一个主要时空聚集区，与空间聚集区重叠。次要聚集区发生在2022年9月至10月期间该邦东部。湿度升高（发病率比（IRR）=1.39；95%置信区间：1.30-1.49）和温度升高（IRR=1.16；95%置信区间：1.06-1.27）会增加结节性皮肤病的发病率，表明疫情存在季节性。本研究结果可帮助动物卫生当局制定有效的印度牛结节性皮肤病预防、监测和控制策略。
