Wang Yongbin, Xue Chenlu, Zhang Bingjie, Li Yuchun, Xu Chunjie
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinxiang Medical University, No. 601 Jinsui Road, Hongqi District, Xinxiang 453003, Henan Province, China.
Beijing Key Laboratory of Antimicrobial Agents/Laboratory of Pharmacology, Institute of Medicinal Biotechnology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100050, China.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2024 Mar 5;2024:8381548. doi: 10.1155/2024/8381548. eCollection 2024.
Human brucellosis (HB) remains a significant public health concern in China. This study aimed to investigate the long- and short-term asymmetric impacts of meteorological variables on HB and develop an early prediction system. Monthly data on HB incidence and meteorological variables were collected from 2005 to 2020. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) to analyze the long- and short-term effects of climate variables on HB. Subsequently, the data were split into training (from January 2005 to December 2019) and testing parts (from January to December 2020) to develop and validate the forecasting accuracy of both models. During 2005-2020, there were 34,993 HB cases (2.03 per 100,000 persons) and there was an overall rising trend (average annual percentage change = 21.18%, 95%CI 18.36%-26.01%) in HB incidence, peaked in May and troughed in December per year. A 1 m/s increment and decrement in differenced () average wind velocity (AWV) contributed to 73.8% and 87.5% increases in HB incidence, respectively (Wald long-run asymmetry test (WLR) = 1.17, =0.25). A 1 hr increment and decrement in (average relative humidity) contributed to both 3.1% increases in HB incidence (Wald short-run asymmetry test = 3.01, =0.003). Average temperature (AT) ( < 0.001) and average air pressure (=0.012) played a long-run linear impact on HB. (aggregate precipitation) (WLR = 1.76, =0.08) and (aggregate sunshine hours) (WLR = 0.07, =0.94) did not have a significant long-term asymmetric impact on log(HB). AT(+) and AWV(-) at a 1-month lag had a meaningful short-run effect on log(HB). In the forecasting aspect, the NARDL produced significantly smaller error rates compared to the ARDL. Weather variability played significant long- and short-run asymmetric roles in HB incidence. The NARDL by integrating climatic variables could accurately capture the dynamic structure of HB epidemic, meaning that meteorological variables should be integrated into the public health intervention plan for HB.
人间布鲁氏菌病（HB）在中国仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题。本研究旨在调查气象变量对HB的长期和短期非对称影响，并开发一个早期预测系统。收集了2005年至2020年期间HB发病率和气象变量的月度数据。该研究采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）和非线性ARDL（NARDL）来分析气候变量对HB的长期和短期影响。随后，将数据分为训练部分（2005年1月至2019年12月）和测试部分（2020年1月至12月），以开发和验证两个模型的预测准确性。在2005 - 2020年期间，共报告34993例HB病例（每10万人中有2.03例），HB发病率总体呈上升趋势（年均变化率 = 21.18%，95%CI 18.36% - 26.01%），每年5月达到峰值，12月降至低谷。差分平均风速（AWV）每增加和减少1 m/s，分别导致HB发病率增加73.8%和87.5%（Wald长期非对称检验（WLR） = 1.17，P = 0.25）。平均相对湿度（）每增加和减少1小时，均导致HB发病率增加3.1%（Wald短期非对称检验 = 3.01，P = 0.003）。平均温度（AT）（P < 0.001）和平均气压（P = 0.012）对HB有长期线性影响。总降水量（）（WLR = 1.76，P = 0.08）和总日照时数（）（WLR = 0.07，P = 0.94）对log(HB)没有显著的长期非对称影响。滞后1个月的AT(+)和AWV(-)对log(HB)有显著的短期影响。在预测方面，与ARDL相比，NARDL产生的错误率显著更小。天气变化在HB发病率中发挥了显著的长期和短期非对称作用。通过整合气候变量的NARDL能够准确捕捉HB流行的动态结构，这意味着气象变量应纳入HB的公共卫生干预计划。
