Fang Tao, Di Yanbo, Xu Yang, Shen Na, Fan Haojun, Hou Shike, Li Xiaoxue
Institute of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
The Fourth Central Hospital, Medical School of Tianjin University, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Apr 16;13:1579716. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1579716. eCollection 2025.
Particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is a leading global health risk factor. We analyzed the spatiotemporal trends of diseases attributable to PM2.5 at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021.
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we assessed global, regional, and national deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to PM2.5, along with age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR), categorized by age, sex, year, location, and disease type. We used average annual percentage change (AAPC) to illustrate trends from 1990 to 2021. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rates (ASRs) across 204 countries. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project trends for 2022-2036.
In 2021, PM2.5 exposure contributed to 7.83 million deaths and 231.51 million DALYs globally. The age-standardized rates decreased to 95.69 per 100,000 for deaths (AAPC = -2.12) and 2984.47 per 100,000 for DALYs (AAPC = -2.22), compared to 1990. Disease burdens related to PM2.5, as reflected by ASMR and ASDR, declined across SDI quintiles and GBD super regions from 1990 to 2021. The low SDI quintile had the highest disease burden (ASMR: 211.39, ASDR: 6,114.26). Correlation analysis revealed a significant negative relationship between ASRs and SDI. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa experienced the highest disease burdens. Males had higher disease burdens than females globally and in all regions. The burden was particularly severe for children under five and older adults. Ischemic heart disease and stroke were the leading causes of PM2.5-related deaths and DALYs. Diabetes mellitus saw an increase in both deaths and DALYs. The BAPC model predicts continued declines in PM2.5-related ASDR and ASMR over the next 15 years.
With population growth and an aging demographic, the public health burden associated with PM2.5 exposure remains a major concern. It is imperative to develop targeted and proactive strategies that account for the unique circumstances and challenges of different regions.
细颗粒物污染（PM2.5）是全球主要的健康风险因素。我们分析了1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家层面归因于PM2.5的疾病的时空趋势。
利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021研究的数据，我们评估了全球、区域和国家层面因PM2.5导致的死亡人数和伤残调整生命年（DALYs），以及按年龄、性别、年份、地点和疾病类型分类的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化DALY率（ASDR）。我们使用平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）来说明1990年至2021年的趋势。进行Spearman相关性分析以检验204个国家的社会人口指数（SDI）与年龄标准化率（ASRs）之间的关系。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）分析来预测2022年至2036年的趋势。
2021年，全球因接触PM2.5导致783万人死亡和2.3151亿伤残调整生命年。与1990年相比，年龄标准化死亡率降至每10万人95.69例（AAPC = -2.12），年龄标准化DALY率降至每10万人2984.47例（AAPC = -2.22）。1990年至2021年期间，按ASMR和ASDR反映的与PM2.5相关的疾病负担在SDI五分位数和GBD超级区域均有所下降。低SDI五分位数的疾病负担最高（ASMR：211.39，ASDR：6114.26）。相关性分析显示ASRs与SDI之间存在显著负相关。南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的疾病负担最高。全球及所有区域男性的疾病负担均高于女性。五岁以下儿童和老年人的负担尤为严重。缺血性心脏病和中风是与PM2.5相关的死亡和伤残调整生命年的主要原因。糖尿病的死亡人数和伤残调整生命年均有所增加。BAPC模型预测未来15年与PM2.5相关的ASDR和ASMR将持续下降。
随着人口增长和人口老龄化，与接触PM2.5相关的公共卫生负担仍然是一个主要问题。必须制定有针对性的积极策略，以应对不同地区的独特情况和挑战。
