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为什么人工智能会阻碍民主化?

Why does AI hinder democratization?

作者信息

Chu C Y Cyrus, Chang Juin-Jen, Lin Chang-Ching

机构信息

Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115024, Taiwan.

Department of Economics, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701410, Taiwan.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 May 13;122(19):e2423266122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2423266122. Epub 2025 May 2.

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between democratization and the development of AI and information and communication technology (ICT). Our empirical evidence shows that in the past 10 y, the advancement of AI/ICT has hindered the development of democracy in many countries around the world. Given that both the state rulers and civil society groups can use AI/ICT, the key that determines which side would benefit more from the advancement of these technologies hinges upon "technology complementarity." In general, AI/ICT would be more complementary to the government rulers because they are more likely than civil society groups to access various administrative big data. Empirically, we propose three hypotheses and use statistical tests to verify our argument. Theoretically, we prove a proposition, showing that when the above-mentioned complementarity assumption is true, the AI/ICT advancements would enable rulers in authoritarian and fragile democratic countries to achieve better control over civil society forces, which leads to the erosion of democracy. Our analysis explains the recent ominous development in some fragile-democracy countries.

摘要

本文探讨了民主化与人工智能及信息通信技术(ICT)发展之间的关系。我们的实证证据表明,在过去10年里,人工智能/信息通信技术的进步阻碍了世界上许多国家的民主发展。鉴于国家统治者和民间社会团体都可以使用人工智能/信息通信技术,决定哪一方能从这些技术进步中获益更多的关键在于“技术互补性”。一般来说,人工智能/信息通信技术与政府统治者的互补性更强,因为他们比民间社会团体更有可能获取各种行政大数据。在实证方面,我们提出了三个假设,并使用统计检验来验证我们的论点。在理论上,我们证明了一个命题,表明当上述互补性假设成立时,人工智能/信息通信技术的进步将使专制国家和脆弱民主国家的统治者能够更好地控制民间社会力量,从而导致民主的侵蚀。我们的分析解释了一些脆弱民主国家近期出现的不祥发展。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/da85/12088401/71e7e901aa21/pnas.2423266122fig01.jpg

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