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广义稳定人口理论

Generalized stable population theory.

作者信息

Artzrouni M

出版信息

J Math Biol. 1985;21(3):363-81. doi: 10.1007/BF00276233.

Abstract

In generalizing stable population theory we give sufficient, then necessary conditions under which a population subject to time dependent vital rates reaches an asymptotic stable exponential equilibrium (as if mortality and fertility were constant). If chi 0 (t) is the positive solution of the characteristic equation associated with the linear birth process at time t, then rapid convergence of chi 0 (t) to chi 0 and convergence of mortality rates produce a stable exponential equilibrium with asymptotic growth rate chi 0-1. Convergence of chi 0 (t) to chi 0 and convergence of mortality rates are necessary. Therefore the two sets of conditions are very close. Various implications of these results are discussed and a conjecture is made in the continuous case.

摘要

在推广稳定人口理论时,我们给出了充分条件,然后是必要条件,在这些条件下,一个受随时间变化的生命率影响的人口会达到渐近稳定的指数平衡(就好像死亡率和生育率是恒定的一样)。如果χ₀(t)是与时间t的线性出生过程相关的特征方程的正解,那么χ₀(t)快速收敛到χ₀以及死亡率的收敛会产生一个具有渐近增长率χ₀⁻¹的稳定指数平衡。χ₀(t)收敛到χ₀以及死亡率的收敛是必要的。因此这两组条件非常接近。讨论了这些结果的各种含义,并在连续情况下提出了一个猜想。

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