Guo Qiang, Madaniyazi Lina, Nomura Shuhei, Chen Kai, Hashizume Masahiro
Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan.
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8131, Japan.
Environ Int. 2025 May;199:109506. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109506. Epub 2025 Apr 30.
Rapid aging significantly increases Japan's population vulnerability to severe heat stress, yet the precise impact on heat stroke-related morbidity remains unclear. This study integrates multiple datasets and develops predictive models for daily heat stroke-related emergency ambulance dispatches (HT-EADs) among younger and older populations in Japan for 2010-2019. By adjusting the proportion of older adults and incorporating pseudo climate warming, we assessed how aging and warming could amplify total HT-EADs. Compared to the simulation using demographic conditions of 1995, recent aging trends have led to a 15% increase in total HT-EADs in Japan during 2010-2019, an effect equivalent to a 0.3℃ warming. This increase could rise to 30% under a super-aging demographic scenario by 2045, surpassing the impact of a 0.5℃ warming. Our findings emphasize that aging has comparable negative impacts on heat stroke morbidity as climate change, highlighting the urgent need of enhanced protections for older residents during hot summers.
快速老龄化显著增加了日本人口对严重热应激的脆弱性，但对中暑相关发病率的确切影响仍不清楚。本研究整合了多个数据集，并针对2010 - 2019年日本年轻和老年人群中与中暑相关的每日紧急救护车派遣（HT - EADs）建立了预测模型。通过调整老年人比例并纳入虚拟气候变暖因素，我们评估了老龄化和气候变暖如何增加总的HT - EADs。与使用1995年人口结构状况进行的模拟相比，近期的老龄化趋势导致2010 - 2019年日本总的HT - EADs增加了15%，这一效应相当于气温上升0.3℃。到2045年，在超级老龄化人口结构情景下，这一增幅可能升至30%，超过气温上升0.5℃的影响。我们的研究结果强调，老龄化对中暑发病率的负面影响与气候变化相当，凸显了在炎热夏季加强对老年居民保护的迫切需求。
