Department of Health Services Management and Policy, Kyushu University Graduate School of Medicine, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka, Japan.
Intern Emerg Med. 2013 Aug;8(5):431-7. doi: 10.1007/s11739-013-0956-4. Epub 2013 May 25.
Demand for emergency ambulances has been increasing in developmentally advanced countries, and in Japan demand has been increasing due to the aging population since 2008, when the total population began to decrease. However, we do not know how acceleration of the aging population relates to the demand for emergency ambulances. Thus, we estimated future demand for emergency ambulances in Japan. A regression with autocorrelated errors model was used to estimate future demand for emergency ambulance dispatches and emergency transports. In the estimation, data on emergency ambulance dispatches, emergency transports, and population data from 1963 to 2011, and an estimate of the population of Japan from 2012 to 2025 were used. The number of emergency ambulance dispatches has increased since 2008, and it is expected to continue to increase until around 2023 or 2024, when it will reach a peak of ~6.2 million per year. Similarly, the number of emergency transports is expected to continue to increase until 2022 or 2023, when it will reach a peak of ~5.3 million per year. Although we need to be careful when evaluating numbers predicted for the remote future due to methodological limitations, the findings might be useful for updating emergency medical care systems to prepare for future increases in demand.
在发达国家，对急救车的需求一直在增加，自 2008 年总人口开始减少以来，由于人口老龄化，日本对急救车的需求也一直在增加。然而，我们不知道人口老龄化的加速与对急救车的需求有何关系。因此，我们估计了日本未来对急救车的需求。使用具有自相关误差的回归模型来估计未来急救车派遣和急救运输的需求。在估计中，使用了 1963 年至 2011 年的急救车派遣、急救运输和人口数据，以及 2012 年至 2025 年日本人口的估计数据。自 2008 年以来，急救车派遣的数量一直在增加，预计将持续增加，直到 2023 年或 2024 年，届时每年将达到约 620 万次的高峰。同样，预计急救运输的数量将继续增加，直到 2022 年或 2023 年达到每年约 530 万次的高峰。尽管由于方法上的限制，我们在评估遥远未来的预测数字时需要谨慎，但这些发现可能有助于更新急救医疗系统，为未来需求的增长做好准备。
