Tang Yifan, Chen Yifan, Zheng Jinglei, Cheng Wei, Jing Yurong, Zhang Yushu, Chai Chengliang, Ling Chengxiu, Wang Ying
Wisdom Lake Academy of Pharmacy, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou 215123, China.
School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L693BX, UK.
One Health. 2025 Apr 15;20:101038. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101038. eCollection 2025 Jun.
The number of reported HIV/AIDS cases in the Zhejiang province, China, has increased drastically. However, spatial disparity and temporal trends in HIV/AIDS risk at the fine level remain unclear. We analyzed HIV/AIDS prevalence in Zhejiang, China to develop targeted HIV/AIDS prevention strategies and health resources.
This study included 56,699 HIV/AIDS patients reported in the Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2022. Data were obtained from the Zhejiang province Database of the National HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted using GeoDa 1.22, and factors influencing HIV/AIDS cases were identified through a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model with the fast-computing R-INLA approach.
Cases decreased from coastal to inland areas, while the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and relative risk (RR) showed an overall increase. Key factors influencing RR included average diagnosed age (ADA), healthcare technical personnel per thousand people (HTP), male proportion (MP), GDP per capita (GDP), population density (PD), per capita disposable income (DPI), teachers per thousand people (TTP). The RR increased by 1.011, 0.989, 1.010, 0.997, 0.932, 0.990, and 0.830 per unit increase in ADA, HTP, MP, GDP, PD, DPI, and TTP, respectively. TTP was negatively associated with RR in high-prevalence regions but positively associated in low-prevalence regions. DPI showed a negative association in most regions but was not significant in upper-middle-prevalence areas.
HIV/AIDS risk varies significantly across the Zhejiang province, China. High-prevalence regions require targeted health education and rapid testing, while low-prevalence areas need improved healthcare infrastructure.
中国浙江省报告的艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例数量急剧增加。然而，精细层面上艾滋病毒/艾滋病风险的空间差异和时间趋势仍不明确。我们分析了中国浙江省的艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行情况，以制定有针对性的艾滋病毒/艾滋病预防策略和卫生资源。
本研究纳入了2005年至2022年浙江省报告的56699例艾滋病毒/艾滋病患者。数据来自国家艾滋病毒/艾滋病综合防治信息管理系统浙江省数据库。使用GeoDa 1.22进行空间自相关分析，并通过具有快速计算R-INLA方法的贝叶斯分层泊松回归模型确定影响艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例的因素。
病例数从沿海地区向内陆地区减少，而标准化发病率（SIR）和相对风险（RR）总体呈上升趋势。影响RR的关键因素包括平均诊断年龄（ADA）、每千人卫生技术人员数（HTP）、男性比例（MP）、人均国内生产总值（GDP）、人口密度（PD）、人均可支配收入（DPI）、每千人教师数（TTP）。ADA、HTP、MP、GDP、PD、DPI和TTP每增加一个单位，RR分别增加1.011、0.989、1.010、0.997、0.932、0.990和0.830。TTP在高流行地区与RR呈负相关，但在低流行地区与RR呈正相关。DPI在大多数地区呈负相关，但在中高流行地区不显著。
中国浙江省艾滋病毒/艾滋病风险存在显著差异。高流行地区需要有针对性的健康教育和快速检测，而低流行地区则需要改善医疗基础设施。
