El Kenawy Ahmed M, Mohamed Emad K, Abdelaal Mohamed M, Alfy Mohamed El, Ragab Azza, Aboelkhair Hassan
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Avda. Montañana 1005, Zaragoza, 50059, Spain.
Department of Geography, Mansoura University, Mansoura, 35516, Egypt.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 6;15(1):15763. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98733-2.
This study evaluates the links between seismic activity and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Red Sea from 2003 to 2020. We utilized the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) and ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (version 9.0) provided by the Global Earthquake Risk Model (GEM) Organizations and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua satellite SST data. Trend analysis indicates that the northern and southern regions exhibited distinct SST changes, with a robust gradient of warming signals from the north to the south. In addition, we assessed the association between seismic activity and SST anomalies across various timescales (daily, annual, and decadal) in the Red Sea. Overall, results suggest a consistent negative correlation between SST changes and seismic activity at the multidecadal and annual scales. At these longer timescales (i.e., annual and decadal), seismic events, even with micro magnitudes (less than 3) as in the northern Red Sea, may contribute to localized and slow negative SST anomalies. This negative feedback may be attributed to the reduction in hydrostatic pressure on the sea crust as a result of the formation of new crusts in response to the divergence of tectonic plates. On the other hand, at shorter scales (daily or weekly), the results indicate SST warming before seismic events and SST cooling during and after the seismic events. This pattern indicates that lithostatic pressure changes and geothermal flux are likely to impact SST shortly before seismic activity. Nevertheless, the long-term variability of SST is less significantly impacted by these localized and short-term anomalies. Overall, the intricacy of SST-seismic interactions has implications for acquiring and understanding the behavior of the dynamic marine environment and earthquake forecasting, but further studies are needed to confirm these potential interactions.
本研究评估了2003年至2020年红海地震活动与海表温度（SST）变化之间的联系。我们利用了埃及国家地震台网（ENSN）以及全球地震风险模型（GEM）组织提供的ISC-GEM全球仪器地震目录（第9.0版）和中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）Aqua卫星的海表温度数据。趋势分析表明，红海北部和南部地区呈现出明显不同的海表温度变化，从北到南有明显的变暖信号梯度。此外，我们评估了红海不同时间尺度（每日、每年和十年）上地震活动与海表温度异常之间的关联。总体而言，结果表明在多年代和年度尺度上，海表温度变化与地震活动之间存在一致的负相关。在这些较长的时间尺度（即年度和十年）上，即使是红海北部微震级（小于3级）的地震事件，也可能导致局部性的、缓慢的负海表温度异常。这种负反馈可能归因于构造板块离散导致新地壳形成，从而使海床静水压降低。另一方面，在较短时间尺度（每日或每周）上，结果表明地震事件前海表温度升高，地震事件期间及之后海表温度下降。这种模式表明，岩石静压力变化和地热能通量可能在地震活动前不久影响海表温度。然而，这些局部性和短期异常对海表温度的长期变化影响较小。总体而言，海表温度与地震相互作用的复杂性对于获取和理解动态海洋环境的行为以及地震预测具有重要意义，但需要进一步研究来证实这些潜在的相互作用。
