Damaske Sarah, Frech Adrianne, Wething Hilary
Sociology Department, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Health Sciences, University of Missouri System, Columbia, MO, USA.
Work Occup. 2024 May;51(2):139-180. doi: 10.1177/07308884231162949. Epub 2023 Jun 6.
We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 to identify group-based trajectories of unemployment risk as workers age in the United States. Our novel methodological approach reveals 73% of full-time workers spend much of their 20, 30, and 40 s with a relatively low risk of unemployment. The remaining sizable minority varies in the and of their unemployment risk. Eighteen percent experience early career unemployment risk into their early thirties, well after the transition to adulthood. Chronic unemployment characterizes the labor market experiences of the remaining 9%. When expanding the sample to all workers, we find two key differences: the overall prevalence of unemployment is greater year for groups and the distribution of respondents across groups differs, with fewer workers experiencing Lower unemployment and more workers experiencing Early Career or Higher unemployment. Unemployment risk is shaped by experiences of long-term unemployment in young adulthood and early labor market constraints. Moreover, while men and women appear equally at risk of Early career unemployment, men are particularly at risk of Higher unemployment. Black workers were significantly more likely to be at risk of Higher unemployment, but only slightly more likely to be at risk of Early career unemployment. Since Early career unemployment risk gives way to steadier work for most, this suggests that some men and some Black workers face disproportionately high levels of employment precarity. Our findings point to the importance of a life course approach for understanding the relationship between unemployment and labor market precarity.
我们利用1979年全国青年纵向调查来确定美国劳动者随着年龄增长基于群体的失业风险轨迹。我们新颖的方法论揭示，73%的全职劳动者在20多岁、30多岁和40多岁的大部分时间里失业风险相对较低。其余相当大比例的少数群体在失业风险的程度和时间上各不相同。18%的人在30岁出头时仍面临早期职业生涯的失业风险，这远远晚于成年期的过渡阶段。其余9%的人在劳动力市场的经历以长期失业为特征。当将样本扩大到所有劳动者时，我们发现两个关键差异：所有群体的年度总体失业患病率更高，各群体中受访者的分布也不同，经历较低失业率的劳动者较少，而经历早期职业生涯或较高失业率的劳动者较多。失业风险受到青年成年期长期失业经历和早期劳动力市场限制的影响。此外，虽然男性和女性面临早期职业生涯失业的风险似乎相同，但男性尤其面临较高失业率的风险。黑人工人面临较高失业率的风险显著更高，但面临早期职业生涯失业的风险仅略高。由于大多数人的早期职业生涯失业风险会让位于更稳定的工作，这表明一些男性和一些黑人工人面临着不成比例的高就业不稳定水平。我们的研究结果指出了采用生命历程方法来理解失业与劳动力市场不稳定之间关系的重要性。
