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数字经济发展下基于粒子群优化-反向传播神经网络模型的碳排放影响因素及预测

Factors and prediction of carbon emissions based on PSO-BP neural network model under the development of digital economy.

作者信息

Liu Wen, Lan Yang, Li Mi, Tu Wen

机构信息

School of Business Administration, Moutai Institute, Zunyi, China.

TVES Laboratory, The University of Lille, Lille, France.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 May 8;20(5):e0322703. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0322703. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0322703
PMID:40338886
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12061098/
Abstract

The Yellow River Economic Belt, where the degree of digital economy development is uneven, is the first research object used in this study. It then suggests a way to measure the degree of digital economy development and carbon emissions in order to address the problem of effectively controlling carbon emissions in the rapidly developing digital economy. Finally, a genetic method is presented to further enhance the backpropagation neural network model's update process, which was improved utilizing the particle swarm optimization technique. According to the findings, this research identified three primary elements: digital industrialization, digital finance, and digital ecological environment. According to the findings, this research identified three primary elements: digital industrialization, digital finance, and digital ecological environment. With the use of digital technology, the digital ecological environment fosters a peaceful coexistence between people and the natural world. In addition to encouraging the advancement of digital technology, it may also help to integrate digital transformation and green development. The use of digital technology in ecological environment governance can assist accomplish sustainable development goals, improve resource allocation, and encourage intelligent and green production and life. In order to change conventional financial service models, the financial sector known as "digital finance" makes use of digital technologies and data components. It has the potential to be very important in encouraging industrial upgrading and propelling the growth of new industries. Additionally, the whole credit structure of the industrial chain may be improved by digital credit and risk management, which will support the economic structure's optimization. The use of digital technology to a variety of sectors, encouraging their digital transformation and modernization, is known as digital industrialization. It is a key component of a contemporary industrial system that may drive new industries and formats, support the intelligent and information-based transformation of established industries, and improve the economic structure. At the same time, the associated carbon emissions dropped by 0.0439 units for every unit rise in the study area's digital economy's degree of growth. The region's overall population, energy consumption, sophisticated industrial structure, and industrial structure rationalization all positively promote carbon emissions, whilst other variables have the opposite impact. The final study approach had the highest predictive performance, with a high goodness of fit of 0.9936 and an average absolute error of 16.971. The aforementioned study results demonstrate that the methodology can effectively evaluate the level of carbon emissions and the development of the digital economy across different regions and provide targeted solutions to lower carbon emissions in line with local conditions, thus fostering the vibrancy of the digital economy.

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/625d8cdcda17/pone.0322703.g010.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/9990143f3f4a/pone.0322703.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/78b9df8e8bdf/pone.0322703.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/083db96597f4/pone.0322703.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/625d8cdcda17/pone.0322703.g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/212decbb65b9/pone.0322703.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/45a770b472ff/pone.0322703.g002.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/d03463ca1bc5/pone.0322703.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/52db0b961e64/pone.0322703.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/f634c8e474fb/pone.0322703.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/9990143f3f4a/pone.0322703.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/78b9df8e8bdf/pone.0322703.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/083db96597f4/pone.0322703.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/19f9/12061098/625d8cdcda17/pone.0322703.g010.jpg
摘要

黄河经济带数字经济发展程度不均衡,是本研究的首个研究对象。研究提出了一种衡量数字经济发展程度和碳排放的方法,以解决在快速发展的数字经济中有效控制碳排放的问题。最后,提出了一种遗传方法,以进一步增强反向传播神经网络模型的更新过程,该模型利用粒子群优化技术进行了改进。研究结果表明,本研究确定了三个主要因素:数字产业化、数字金融和数字生态环境。研究结果表明,本研究确定了三个主要因素:数字产业化、数字金融和数字生态环境。数字生态环境利用数字技术促进人与自然的和谐共生。除了推动数字技术的进步,它还可能有助于整合数字转型和绿色发展。在生态环境治理中使用数字技术有助于实现可持续发展目标,改善资源配置,并鼓励智能绿色生产和生活。“数字金融”这一金融领域利用数字技术和数据组件来改变传统金融服务模式。它在鼓励产业升级和推动新产业发展方面可能非常重要。此外,数字信贷和风险管理可以改善产业链的整体信贷结构,从而支持经济结构的优化。数字产业化是指将数字技术应用于各个领域,鼓励其进行数字转型和现代化。它是现代产业体系的关键组成部分,可以推动新产业和新业态的发展,支持传统产业的智能化和信息化转型,改善经济结构。同时,研究区域数字经济增长程度每上升一个单位,相关碳排放下降0.0439个单位。该地区的总人口、能源消耗、产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化均对碳排放有正向促进作用,而其他变量则有相反影响。最终的研究方法具有最高的预测性能,拟合优度高达0.9936,平均绝对误差为16.971。上述研究结果表明,该方法可以有效评估不同地区的碳排放水平和数字经济发展情况,并根据当地情况提供有针对性的降低碳排放解决方案,从而促进数字经济的活力。

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