Jin Hyungah, Yeo Soyoung, Woo Jung-Hun, Kim Minjoong J, Seong Miae, Seo Do Hyun, Baek Jiwon, Oh Sang-Seok, Kim Cheol-Hee
Climate and Air Quality Research Department, Global Environment Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon 22689, Republic of Korea.
Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul 08828, Republic of Korea.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Jun;385:125653. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125653. Epub 2025 May 8.
The 2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenario (CNS) in South Korea was developed based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and air pollution (AP) control policies. This study evaluated its potential impact on air quality in South Korea in 2050. Implementation of cost-effective and GHG-compatible AP control policies under the 2050 CNS led to projected decreases in emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO), oxides of nitrogen (NO), fine particulate matter (PM), and ammonia (NH) in South Korea by 56 %, 74 %, 40 %, and 27 %, respectively, relative to 2019 levels. For China and Japan, all emissions except NH were projected to decrease by 50-93 % and 37-67 %, respectively. Two contrasting AP emission scenarios were developed, coupled with IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate scenarios for Northeast Asia: (1) no additional control measures for energy production and AP + SSP5-85 (SSP585NMC) and (2) carbon neutrality achieved by 2050 based on a GHG-compatible AP control policy + SSP1-62 (SSP162ZERO). AP modeling through 2050 was conducted using a climate-chemistry model. By 2050, the 2050 CNS is expected to significantly reduce major air pollutants, contributing to improved air quality. However, ozone (O) levels exhibit complex responses under SSP585NMC, with seasonal variations leading to potential increase due to rising temperatures driven by high levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This suggests that while GHG-compatible policies effectively reduce primary pollutants, a mid-to long-term strategy integrating GHS and VOC controls will be crucial to achieving sustainable air quality goals under carbon neutrality.
韩国的2050年碳中和情景（CNS）是基于温室气体（GHG）减排和空气污染（AP）控制政策制定的。本研究评估了其对韩国2050年空气质量的潜在影响。在2050年CNS情景下实施具有成本效益且与温室气体兼容的空气污染控制政策，预计韩国的二氧化硫（SO）、氮氧化物（NO）、细颗粒物（PM）和氨（NH）排放量相对于2019年水平将分别下降56%、74%、40%和27%。对于中国和日本，预计除NH外的所有排放量将分别下降50%-93%和37%-67%。结合政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）东北亚共享社会经济路径（SSP）气候情景，制定了两种对比鲜明的空气污染排放情景：（1）能源生产和空气污染无额外控制措施+SSP5-85（SSP585NMC），以及（2）基于与温室气体兼容的空气污染控制政策到2050年实现碳中和+SSP1-62（SSP162ZERO）。使用气候化学模型对2050年前的空气污染进行建模。到2050年，预计2050年CNS情景将显著减少主要空气污染物，有助于改善空气质量。然而，在SSP585NMC情景下，臭氧（O）水平呈现复杂的响应，季节性变化导致由于高挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）水平驱动的气温上升而可能增加。这表明，虽然与温室气体兼容的政策有效地减少了一次污染物，但整合温室气体和挥发性有机化合物控制的中长期战略对于在碳中和下实现可持续空气质量目标至关重要。
