Jung Youn Soo, Choma Ernani, Delaney Scott, Mork Daniel, Audirac Michelle, Braun Danielle, Kessler William, Coull Brent, Nadeau Kari, Zanobetti Antonella
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.
Environ Epidemiol. 2025 May 6;9(3):e395. doi: 10.1097/EE9.0000000000000395. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Extreme heat (EH) is a leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. In Massachusetts, average temperatures have increased by 1.9 °C since the 20th century, higher than the global average increase of 1.1 °C. EH disproportionately impacts communities, exacerbating social inequities. This study examined the risks of heat-related hospitalizations in each small area of the Greater Boston Metropolitan Area using Medicare data (2000-2016). EH events included daily heat index (HI), days with an HI above the 90th percentile, and heat waves (≥2 consecutive EH days). We applied a case-crossover design to estimate area-specific associations between EH and hospitalizations and assessed effect modifications by an individual (age ≥85, sex, Medicaid dual eligibility) and ZIP-code characteristics (green space, poverty, educational attainment, and household income). Results were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Area-specific analysis revealed higher hospitalization risks in Boston compared with surrounding areas. Pooled results indicated heat-related hospitalizations increased by 9.0% (95% CI = 5.7, 12.3) per 10 °C rise in HI, 14.4% (95% CI = 8.8, 20.3) on EH days, and 17.9% (95% CI = 11.1, 25.1) during heat waves. Risks were more pronounced in Boston, and some indications of elevated risk among males and residents in low-income, low-education areas. These findings underscore that heat-related health risks may be different across the level of geographic units and suggest the need for targeted public health strategies to mitigate the impacts of EH.
极端高温是美国与天气相关的死亡的主要原因。自20世纪以来,马萨诸塞州的平均气温上升了1.9摄氏度,高于全球平均上升幅度1.1摄氏度。极端高温对社区的影响不均衡,加剧了社会不平等。本研究利用医疗保险数据(2000 - 2016年)调查了大波士顿都会区每个小区域与高温相关的住院风险。极端高温事件包括每日热指数(HI)、热指数高于第90百分位数的日子以及热浪(连续≥2天极端高温)。我们采用病例交叉设计来估计极端高温与住院之间的区域特定关联,并评估个体(年龄≥85岁、性别、医疗补助双重资格)和邮政编码特征(绿地、贫困、教育程度和家庭收入)的效应修正。结果使用随机效应荟萃分析进行汇总。区域特定分析显示,与周边地区相比,波士顿的住院风险更高。汇总结果表明,热指数每升高10摄氏度,与高温相关的住院率增加9.0%(95%置信区间 = 5.7,12.3),在极端高温日增加14.4%(95%置信区间 = 8.8,20.3),在热浪期间增加17.9%(95%置信区间 = 11.1,25.1)。风险在波士顿更为明显,并且有迹象表明男性以及低收入、低教育地区居民的风险有所升高。这些发现强调,与高温相关的健康风险在不同地理单元层面可能有所不同,并表明需要有针对性的公共卫生策略来减轻极端高温的影响。