Hammond David, Hong Daniel, Rundle Samantha, Iraniparast Maryam, Kilmer Beau, Wadsworth Elle
School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
Int J Drug Policy. 2025 Aug;142:104828. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2025.104828. Epub 2025 May 8.
Canada legalized 'recreational' or 'non-medical' cannabis in 2018 with a primary objective of displacing illicit cannabis and transitioning consumers to a 'quality controlled' legal retail market. To date, there is limited research on legal market capture in jurisdictions with non-medical cannabis markets.
The current analysis used 'demand-side' methods to estimate the size of the Canadian cannabis market using data from two sources. First, data from the Canadian Community Health Survey were used to estimate the number of Canadians who use cannabis. Second, data on cannabis expenditures from legal versus illegal sources were analyzed from 5656 past 12-month consumers aged 16-100 who completed national surveys conducted in 2022 as part of the International Cannabis Policy Study.
Total estimated expenditures from legal sources were within two percentage points of the 'actual' retail sales data from Government of Canada's tracking system. In the 12-month period ending in September 2022, total cannabis expenditures in Canada were estimated at $6.72 billion dollars, including $5.23 billion from legal sources and $1.49 billion from illegal sources for an estimated legal market capture of 78 %. In 2022, dried flower accounted for 55 % of total legal expenditures and an additional 2 % was spent on plants and seeds. Concentrates accounted for 12 % of legal expenditures, followed by oral liquids (11 %), vaping liquids (10 %), and edibles (8 %, excluding drinks).
The findings provide evidence of substantial transition in expenditures from the illegal to the legal market in the five years since legalization of non-medical cannabis in Canada.
加拿大于2018年将“娱乐性”或“非医用”大麻合法化，其主要目标是取代非法大麻，并促使消费者转向“质量可控”的合法零售市场。迄今为止，在拥有非医用大麻市场的司法管辖区，关于合法市场占有率的研究有限。
当前分析采用“需求侧”方法，利用两个来源的数据估算加拿大大麻市场的规模。首先，加拿大社区健康调查的数据用于估算使用大麻的加拿大人数量。其次，对5656名年龄在16至100岁之间、在2022年完成全国性调查（作为国际大麻政策研究的一部分）的过去12个月的消费者，分析了合法与非法来源的大麻支出数据。
合法来源的总估计支出与加拿大政府追踪系统的“实际”零售销售数据相差在两个百分点以内。在截至2022年9月的12个月期间，加拿大大麻总支出估计为67.2亿加元，其中合法来源为52.3亿加元，非法来源为14.9亿加元，估计合法市场占有率为78%。2022年，干花占合法总支出的55%，另外2%用于植物和种子。浓缩物占合法支出的12%，其次是口服液（11%）、电子烟液（10%）和食用大麻制品（8%，不包括饮料）。
研究结果提供了证据，表明自加拿大大麻非医用合法化以来的五年里，支出已从非法市场大幅转向合法市场。
