Gu Wenying, Greenwood Brad N, Agarwal Ritu, Nestadt Paul S
Decision, Operations, and Information Technologies, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland.
Costello College of Business, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia.
Am J Prev Med. 2025 Aug;69(2):107652. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2025.107652. Epub 2025 May 9.
Although a growing number of states have implemented extreme risk protective orders to curb gun violence, existing studies on extreme risk protective orders have been limited in scope, focusing on a few states, and often lacking robust methodologies to identify their effects. This work estimates the effect of extreme risk protective order codification on firearm fatalities (homicides and suicides). Further, the study examines heterogeneity in fatalities across racial subpopulations and those who can petition for such restrictions (viz. law enforcement, family members, healthcare professionals).
Using a difference in difference approach, the authors estimate changes in outcomes across 19 treated states and the District of Columbia, which implemented ERPOs, and 31 control states. The sample runs from 1998 to 2020, including 288,250 homicides and 450,956 suicides involving firearms. Data are drawn from National Center for Health Statistics death certificates.
Empowering health professional petitioners significantly reduces suicides overall, most prominently among White victims (-14.79%; 95% CI= -19.18%, -10.24%]; 7-16 state yearly net effect). Including family members as petitioners significantly decreases homicides overall, and most prominently among Black victims to varying degrees in most models.
Results indicate significant differences in the efficacy of extreme risk protection orders implementation on firearm-related homicides and suicides across petitioners and subpopulations. This study underscores the benefits of diversified petitioners and their role in ending violence across different communities.
尽管越来越多的州已实施极端风险保护令以遏制枪支暴力，但现有的关于极端风险保护令的研究范围有限，聚焦于少数几个州，且往往缺乏确定其效果的有力方法。这项研究估计了极端风险保护令编纂对枪支致死率（杀人及自杀）的影响。此外，该研究还考察了不同种族亚群体以及那些可申请此类限制的人群（即执法人员、家庭成员、医疗保健专业人员）在致死率方面的差异。
作者采用双重差分法，估计了19个实施极端风险保护令的处理州和哥伦比亚特区以及31个对照州的结果变化。样本涵盖1998年至2020年，包括288,250起涉及枪支的杀人案件和450,956起涉及枪支的自杀案件。数据取自国家卫生统计中心的死亡证明。
赋予医疗保健专业人员申请权总体上显著降低了自杀率，在白人受害者中最为明显（-14.79%；95%置信区间 = -19.18%，-10.24%；7 - 16个州的年度净效应）。将家庭成员纳入申请人范围总体上显著降低了杀人率，在大多数模型中，对黑人受害者的降低幅度最为明显。
结果表明，极端风险保护令在不同申请人和亚群体中对与枪支相关的杀人及自杀事件的实施效果存在显著差异。本研究强调了多元化申请人的益处及其在终结不同社区暴力方面的作用。
