Motsumi Masego M, Nemakonde Livhuwani D
African Centre for Disaster Studies, Unit for Environmental Science and Management, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa.
Jamba. 2025 Apr 4;17(1):1754. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v17i1.1754. eCollection 2025.
Indigenous knowledge plays a crucial role in predicting hazardous events, particularly for rural communities who are not reached by conventional early warning systems. Historical knowledge of hazard occurrence stored in the repository of these communities combined with their ability to observe environmental indicators, enhances their preparedness for, response to, and recovery from disasters. This study sought to gain insights into the Indigenous indicators used by rural communities in the Joe Morolong Local Municipality, Northern Cape, South Africa, to predict natural hazards, and explores how these indicators could complement meteorological seasonal climate and weather forecasts. The study was conducted in Joe Morolong Local Municipality, Northern Cape, South Africa. A phenomenological approach, which is a form of qualitative research design, was employed, with data collected through focus group discussions and virtual interviews with key informants, involving 109 participants. The findings reveal that communities rely on various environmental signs, including changes in vegetation, lunar cycles, cloud formations, bird behaviors, and wind speed and direction, to predict and anticipate hazardous events. These traditional methods, refined over generations, provide localised, trusted, and contextually relevant early warning systems that enhance disaster preparedness. By recognising and integrating these Indigenous indicators with meteorological forecasts, disaster risk management efforts can be strengthened, ensuring that rural communities have more comprehensive and effective tools for mitigating the risks and impacts of natural hazards.
This study emphasises the value of Indigenous knowledge as a vital resource for enhancing disaster and climate resilience, as well as improving early warning systems.
本土知识在预测危险事件方面发挥着关键作用，尤其是对于那些未被传统预警系统覆盖的农村社区而言。这些社区知识库中存储的灾害发生历史知识，再加上他们观察环境指标的能力，增强了他们对灾害的准备、应对和灾后恢复能力。本研究旨在深入了解南非北开普省乔·莫罗隆地方市农村社区用于预测自然灾害的本土指标，并探讨这些指标如何补充气象季节性气候和天气预报。该研究在南非北开普省乔·莫罗隆地方市开展。采用了现象学方法，这是一种定性研究设计形式，通过焦点小组讨论和与关键信息提供者的虚拟访谈收集数据，共有109名参与者。研究结果表明，社区依靠各种环境迹象，包括植被变化、月相周期、云的形成、鸟类行为以及风速和风向，来预测和预期危险事件。这些经过几代人完善的传统方法提供了本地化、可信赖且与实际情况相关的预警系统，增强了灾害准备能力。通过认识并将这些本土指标与气象预报相结合，可以加强灾害风险管理工作，确保农村社区拥有更全面、有效的工具来减轻自然灾害的风险和影响。
本研究强调了本土知识作为增强灾害和气候适应能力以及改善预警系统的重要资源的价值。
