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罗马尼亚髋部骨折发生率的建模研究。

A Modeling Study for Hip Fracture Rates in Romania.

作者信息

Moldovan Flaviu, Moldovan Liviu

机构信息

Orthopedics-Traumatology Department, Faculty of Medicine, George Emil Palade University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science, and Technology of Targu Mures, 540142 Targu Mures, Romania.

Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, George Emil Palade University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science, and Technology of Targu Mures, 540142 Targu Mures, Romania.

出版信息

J Clin Med. 2025 May 2;14(9):3162. doi: 10.3390/jcm14093162.

Abstract

: As the population ages, the number of hip fractures is expected to increase. Developing prevention policies requires knowledge of the factors that lead to the incidence of hip fractures. In this study, we aimed to quantify how much variation in hip fracture incidence can be explained by osteoporosis treatment and temporal trends in the main risk factors. : We used the HIP-IMPACT method for a national study in Romania. This method has been validated nationally in Norway, based on the validated IMPACT models for coronary heart disease. The model uses numerical data from 2008 to 2018 on fractures stratified by sex, the prevalence of pharmacological treatments, and risk and prevention factors. : The HIP-IMPACT model explained 90.1% (4287/4760) of the variation in hip fracture rates recorded during the period of 2008-2018. The increase in the number of fractures was explained by the increase in body mass index (1750/4760; 36.8%), the decrease in the intensity of physical activities (1396/4760; 29.3%), the increase in the prevalence of smoking (1387/4760; 29.1%), the increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes (334/4760; 7.0%), and users of z-drugs (381/4760; 8.0%), glucorticoids (491/4760; 10.3%), and opioids (331/4760; 7.0%). These effects were partially compensated by change over time in the uptake of osteoporosis medication (733/4760; 15.4%), increased prevalence of total hip replacements (491/4760; 10.2%), and reduced benzodiazepine use (559/4760; 11.8%). : From 2008 to 2018, osteoporosis medication contributed to a decrease in hip fractures by one-eighth, while changes in risk factors and prevention contributed to an increase in hip fractures by three-quarters. There is high potential for fracture prevention through pharmacological treatments but also through national policies to increase physical activity, reduce smoking, and lower body mass index (BMI).

摘要

随着人口老龄化,髋部骨折的数量预计将会增加。制定预防政策需要了解导致髋部骨折发生率的因素。在本研究中,我们旨在量化骨质疏松症治疗以及主要风险因素的时间趋势能够解释髋部骨折发生率的多大差异。

我们在罗马尼亚的一项全国性研究中使用了HIP - IMPACT方法。该方法基于已在挪威全国验证的冠心病IMPACT模型进行了全国验证。该模型使用了2008年至2018年按性别分层的骨折、药物治疗的患病率以及风险和预防因素的数值数据。

HIP - IMPACT模型解释了2008 - 2018年期间记录的髋部骨折发生率变化的90.1%(4287/4760)。骨折数量的增加可归因于体重指数的增加(1750/4760;36.8%)、体力活动强度的降低(1396/4760;29.3%)、吸烟患病率的增加(1387/4760;29.1%)、2型糖尿病患病率的增加(334/4760;7.0%)以及使用z类药物(381/4760;8.0%)、糖皮质激素(491/4760;10.3%)和阿片类药物(331/4760;7.0%)。这些影响部分被骨质疏松症药物使用随时间的变化(733/4760;15.4%)、全髋关节置换术患病率的增加(491/4760;10.2%)以及苯二氮䓬类药物使用的减少(559/4760;11.8%)所抵消。

从2008年到2018年,骨质疏松症药物使髋部骨折减少了八分之一,而风险因素和预防措施的变化使髋部骨折增加了四分之三。通过药物治疗以及通过国家政策增加体力活动、减少吸烟和降低体重指数(BMI),骨折预防具有很大潜力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b3c2/12072267/a9beac38582a/jcm-14-03162-g001.jpg

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