Mategula Donnie, Gichuki Judy, Barnes Karen I, Giorgi Emanuele, Terlouw Dianne Janette
Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Programme, Blantyre, Malawi.
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025 May 14;5(5):e0003751. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003751. eCollection 2025.
Malaria Early Warning Systems (EWS) are predictive tools that often use climatic and other environmental variables to forecast malaria risk and trigger timely interventions. Despite their potential benefits, the development and implementation of malaria EWS face significant challenges and limitations. We reviewed the current evidence on malaria EWS, including their settings, methods, performance, actions, and evaluation. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using keywords related to EWS and malaria in various databases and registers. We included primary research and programmatic reports on developing and implementing Malaria EWS. We extracted and synthesized data on the characteristics, outcomes, and experiences of Malaria EWS. We screened 6,233 records and identified 30 studies from 16 countries that met the inclusion criteria. The studies varied in their transmission settings, from pre-elimination to high burden, and their purposes, ranging from outbreak detection to resource allocation. The studies employed various statistical and machine-learning models to forecast malaria cases, often incorporating environmental covariates such as rainfall and temperature. The most common mode used is the time series model. The performance of the models was assessed using measures such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and adjusted R-squared (R 2). The studies reported actions and responses triggered by EWS predictions, such as vector control, case management, and health education. The lack of standardized criteria and methodologies limited the evaluation of EWS impact. Our review highlights the strengths and limitations of malaria early warning systems, emphasizing the need for methodological refinement, standardization of evaluation metrics, and real-time integration into public health workflows. While significant progress has been made, challenges remain in automating forecasting tools, ensuring scalability, and aligning predictions with actionable public health responses. Future efforts should enhance model precision, usability, and adaptability to improve malaria prevention and control strategies in endemic regions.
疟疾早期预警系统(EWS)是一种预测工具,通常利用气候和其他环境变量来预测疟疾风险并触发及时干预。尽管具有潜在益处,但疟疾EWS的开发和实施面临重大挑战和限制。我们回顾了关于疟疾EWS的现有证据,包括其设置、方法、性能、行动和评估。我们在各种数据库和登记册中使用与EWS和疟疾相关的关键词进行了全面的文献检索。我们纳入了关于开发和实施疟疾EWS的初步研究和项目报告。我们提取并综合了关于疟疾EWS的特征、结果和经验的数据。我们筛选了6233条记录,确定了来自16个国家的30项符合纳入标准的研究。这些研究的传播环境各不相同,从消除前到高负担地区,其目的也各不相同,从疫情检测到资源分配。这些研究采用了各种统计和机器学习模型来预测疟疾病例,通常纳入降雨和温度等环境协变量。最常用的模式是时间序列模型。使用赤池信息准则(AIC)、均方根误差(RMSE)和调整后的决定系数(R²)等指标评估模型的性能。这些研究报告了EWS预测引发的行动和应对措施,如病媒控制、病例管理和健康教育。缺乏标准化的标准和方法限制了对EWS影响的评估。我们的综述强调了疟疾早期预警系统的优势和局限性,强调需要改进方法、标准化评估指标,并实时整合到公共卫生工作流程中。虽然已经取得了重大进展,但在自动化预测工具、确保可扩展性以及使预测与可采取行动的公共卫生应对措施保持一致方面仍存在挑战。未来的努力应提高模型的精度、可用性和适应性,以改善流行地区的疟疾预防和控制策略。