Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar.

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.