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基于分布滞后非线性模型的南京市空气污染物对儿童哮喘影响的研究

Study on the impact of air pollutants on childhood asthma in Nanjing based on a distributed lag non-linear model.

作者信息

Li Wenjing, Ding Ting, Feng Yahui, Xu Jin, Li Zhuo

机构信息

Department of Pharmacy, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.

National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2025 Apr 30;13:1560896. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1560896. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Asthma, a chronic respiratory disease, is a significant public health concern globally. Air pollution has been identified as one of the key risk factors exacerbating respiratory conditions, particularly in children. Previous studies have shown a correlation between air pollution levels and asthma visits. However, the impact of air pollutants on childhood asthma visits stratified by gender, age and season remains a topic of interest, and further investigation is necessary to comprehend this complex relationship.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the association between air pollution and childhood asthma visits in Nanjing from 2013 to 2021. It focused on the effects of various pollutants, including PM, PM, NO, SO, CO, and O, and examined variations in impact based on demographic characteristics (gender and age) and seasonal changes.

METHODS

Data on childhood asthma visits and concentrations of air pollutants were collected and analyzed. The lag effects of pollutants on asthma visits were assessed, and the impacts were stratified by gender, age group (0-5 years, 6-11 years, and over 11 years), and season. Statistical methods were used to identify significant correlations and the timing of maximum effects of pollutants.

RESULTS

A positive correlation was found between childhood asthma visits and concentrations of AQI, PM, PM, SO, NO, and CO, with the strongest effects typically occurring on lag day 1. The study revealed that PM and PM had a more pronounced impact on females, and children aged 0-5 years were the most affected age group. Seasonal analysis showed that PM and SO had the greatest impact in spring, while PM and NO were most significant in winter. Notably, SO showed no significant impact on childhood over 11 years old or during summer, and the negative correlation between CO concentrations and childhood asthma visits in the summer, while in other seasons, the correlation was positive.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate a substantial effect of air pollutants, particularly PM and SO, on childhood asthma, emphasizing the need for targeted pollution control measures. Variations in impact based on gender, age, and season suggest the importance of tailored interventions to protect vulnerable populations, especially young children in urban and industrial areas.

摘要

背景

哮喘是一种慢性呼吸道疾病,是全球重大的公共卫生问题。空气污染已被确定为加剧呼吸道疾病的关键风险因素之一,尤其是在儿童中。先前的研究表明空气污染水平与哮喘就诊之间存在关联。然而,按性别、年龄和季节分层的空气污染物对儿童哮喘就诊的影响仍是一个有趣的话题,有必要进行进一步调查以理解这种复杂关系。

目的

本研究旨在探讨2013年至2021年南京空气污染与儿童哮喘就诊之间的关联。重点关注各种污染物的影响,包括颗粒物(PM)、细颗粒物(PM)、氮氧化物(NO)、二氧化硫(SO)、一氧化碳(CO)和臭氧(O),并根据人口统计学特征(性别和年龄)以及季节变化研究影响的差异。

方法

收集并分析了儿童哮喘就诊数据和空气污染物浓度数据。评估了污染物对哮喘就诊的滞后效应,并按性别、年龄组(0至5岁、6至11岁和11岁以上)和季节对影响进行分层。使用统计方法确定显著相关性以及污染物最大影响的时间。

结果

发现儿童哮喘就诊与空气质量指数(AQI)、PM、PM、SO、NO和CO浓度之间呈正相关,最强影响通常出现在滞后第1天。研究表明,PM和PM对女性的影响更为明显,0至5岁儿童是受影响最大的年龄组。季节分析显示,PM和SO在春季影响最大,而PM和NO在冬季最为显著。值得注意的是,SO对11岁以上儿童或夏季没有显著影响,夏季CO浓度与儿童哮喘就诊呈负相关,而在其他季节,相关性为正。

结论

研究结果表明空气污染物,尤其是PM和SO,对儿童哮喘有重大影响,强调了采取针对性污染控制措施的必要性。基于性别、年龄和季节的影响差异表明,采取量身定制的干预措施以保护弱势群体,特别是城市和工业区的幼儿非常重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4cb1/12075223/1631e62a9042/fpubh-13-1560896-g001.jpg

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