Fu Z T, Jiang F, Lu Z L, Chu J, Xu X H, Zhang B Y, Xue F Z, Guo X L, Xu A Q, Ma J X
Department for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China.
Institute of Preventive Medicine in Shandong University (Shandong Academy of Preventive Medicine), Jinan 250014, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2025 May 6;59(5):555-560. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-202405310-00442.
To understand spatial aggregation of lung cancer mortality and its changing trends over the past fifty years in different counties and districts of Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. The mortality data of lung cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong province and three retrospective surveys of death cause. The mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate were used to describe the changing trend of lung cancer in different years, and the contribution value of population factors and non-population factors in lung cancer mortality change was calculated by the mortality differential decomposition method. GeoDa 1.20 and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used for spatial autocorrelation analysis and visualization map display. The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province showed a significant upward trend from 1970 to 2021, rising from 7.22 per 100 000 in 1970-1974 to 62.73 per 100 000 in 2020-2021, with an increase of 7.69 times. Meanwhile, the standardized mortality rate of lung cancer exhibited a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The differential analysis of lung cancer mortality in different years revealed that changes in crude mortality rates were the result of the combined effects of demographic and non-demographic factors. The proportion of population factors (aging population) leading to an increase in lung cancer mortality rate rose from 2.12% in 1990-1992 to 40.20% in 2020-2021. From a spatial distribution perspective, there were significant regional differences in lung cancer mortality rates among counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province across different eras. Compared to the period of 1970-1974, the lung cancer mortality rates in all counties and districts in 2020-2021 showed a considerable increase, and there were noticeable changes in the areas of high-high and low-low clustering of lung cancer mortality rates across different eras. There have been significant temporal and spatial changes in the mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. The crude mortality rate has shown an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate increases first and then decreases. The concentration of lung cancer mortality rates in counties and districts has also undergone significant changes.
了解1970年至2021年山东省不同县区肺癌死亡率的空间聚集情况及其在过去五十年中的变化趋势。肺癌死亡率数据来自山东省死亡登记系统和三次死因回顾性调查。采用死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率描述不同年份肺癌的变化趋势，运用死亡率差异分解法计算人口因素和非人口因素在肺癌死亡率变化中的贡献值。使用GeoDa 1.20和ArcGIS 10.8软件进行空间自相关分析和可视化地图展示。山东省肺癌粗死亡率在1970年至2021年呈显著上升趋势，从1970 - 1974年的十万分之7.22上升至2020 - 2021年的十万分之62.73，增长了7.69倍。同时，肺癌标准化死亡率呈现先上升后下降的趋势。不同年份肺癌死亡率的差异分析表明，粗死亡率的变化是人口和非人口因素共同作用的结果。导致肺癌死亡率上升的人口因素（人口老龄化）比例从1990 - 1992年的2.12%上升至2020 - 2021年的40.20%。从空间分布来看，山东省不同时期各县（市、区）肺癌死亡率存在显著的区域差异。与1970 - 1974年相比，2020 - 2021年所有县区的肺癌死亡率均有大幅上升，不同时期肺癌死亡率高高聚集区和低低聚集区也有明显变化。1970年至2021年山东省肺癌死亡率存在显著的时空变化。粗死亡率呈上升趋势，标准化死亡率先上升后下降。县区肺癌死亡率的聚集情况也发生了显著变化。
